What's up with the forecasts???????

[alex177]

[cosmicharlie]

[tom_eberhard]

In my experience, the best thing to do for the cape is to check the isobar forcast. If you see straight lines, all nicely aligned, lots of them, and getting tighter as the day progresses then it's good.

If they're vertical, you should see 7 or more for a good day. If they're horizontal, I look for 5 or more. Also you need sunshine / high temperatures to drive the thermals.

There's only 2 features I really want:
- Email the forecasts and 11:30 updates.
- A page where people can say where they're going sailing and when.
That way if the forecast is marginal and 20 people are going to Kalmus you know something is up.
Personally I think this Sunday (june 24th) is looking promising on the cape.
Tom. (Boston)

[marccoe]

Hi guys -

I agree that wind forecasting is an inexact science at best. However, it does seem like the forecasters put much more effort into the forecasts a few years ago then they do know. (With the exception of Matt - it seems like he still tries; unlike the other guys who just cut and paste way too much!)

I have a suggestion - why don't we use the forecast feedback as Matt suggests and also copy it to this forum, so all members can get a feeling what goes on behind the scenes. Perhaps Matt and the other meteorologists could post occasional replies to the forecast feedback as well here, in a public setting.

What do you think?

Marc

Marc

[scooper]

marcoe,

I like your idea of using the feedback link and posting to this forum too. That way others who may have had a different experience on that day can chime in. Now I just have to remember to do it.

[jkrouwer]

Here's some feedback for Thurs. June 21. The forecast for MA south coast was for little wind until late - don't remember the exact details but West Falmouth was forecast at 12-16 for most of the afternoon.

I suspected more wind - low humidity, NWS forecasts, sunny. My signal was the Buzzards Bay buoy which turned SW 13 at 11AM (it had been NW). I left for Ned's Point when it read NW at 4. When I arrived it was 20-25 SW which was ideal sailing. West Falmouth was 25-30 SW. I had to leave at 3 PM.

I suppose the most surprising thing is that there were no iWindsurf updates (checked when I was home at 5PM).

[cosmicharlie]

Yes, I was wondering if anyone else had been sailing that day. Wacko Bay was refreshingly deserted of accomplished kiters. Only a few body dragging beginners had taken the forecast for a good wind indication. In spite of all predictions, the winds were rather strong. Nevertheless, I'm not going to load the car and rush out to Chappy this morning in spite of the good current readings and potential for strong winds to noon according to the forecast. The emphasis would be on potential and the reality would be that a NW at Chappy isn't reliable. I snoozed, and I losed. The forecast was there.

[Dunoyer]

I'm surmising that some weather set ups are often repeated, and therefore deliver confident computer model predictions. And there are those rogue set ups, where no one is quite sure, so the meteorologists make a prediction anyway with low confidence. I think it helps a lot to know how confident the meteorlogist is of his/her forcast. Lately, I'm home when it's windy, and at the beach when it's calm, all of this while religiously analyzing the iwindsurf forecasts. Something is wrong with this picture!

[cjanson]

That's just the way it is... if youre getting all edgy and doubting life choices because the wind isnt blowing, find another hobby. Or seek therapy. After 20 years of sailing, if the wind isnt there, I find something else to do.

[pueno]

"Wacko Bay was refreshingly deserted of accomplished kiters."

You mean psychokiter wasn't there? Surely, broadreach, beachdoser, sinbad, gaastrageezer, bigwebsailer, snowyguy, and tycoonguy were there to keep you company.