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What's up with the forecasts???????
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dcharlton



Joined: 24 Apr 2002
Posts: 379

PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2007 3:44 pm    Post subject: What's up with the forecasts??????? Reply with quote

Alright, so maybe I'm just frustrated to always be missing the wind.

Maybe it's just work/family/competing priorities and I'm just missing it by the time I get out.

Maybe I'm just committing myself to the wrong spots.... BUT

This is the 3rd week where I determined my schedule, planned a vacation day or made a Dawn Patrol session based upon a forecast calling for about or over 20 knots and getting NOWHERE NEAR IT!!!!!!!

Take today, Friday, for example, calling for high teens or even 20 by 4:00 at Fogland and now it's under 10?????

Again, maybe I'm just getting edgy and am being unfair but the only thing worse than getting skunked, is getting skunked with a promising forecast.

DC
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scooper



Joined: 28 May 1987
Posts: 537
Location: Massachusettes

PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2007 6:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, I was thinking of hitting Fogland late in the day too. The wind has been so light this spring, at least for someone who can't sail whenever thet want! I guess the forecast didn't sound that optimistic to me, so I wasn't surprised to see no wind, just dissapointed.
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pamkandu



Joined: 27 May 2007
Posts: 1

PostPosted: Sat Jun 09, 2007 8:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Same problem here in South Jersey (Lakes Bay). Took 1/2 vacation day yesterday, got totally skunked. Two weeks ago, went down on a mild wind forecast with a friend new to the sport - and it was blowing up to 35 knots. In fact, it knocked out the sensor.

Wish I had a wind genie...

PV
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jkrouwer



Joined: 10 Apr 2000
Posts: 20

PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2007 10:00 am    Post subject: The forecast problem and a solution Reply with quote

It stands to reason that the longer the time between the forecast and the actual sailing time, the less reliable the forecast. I get the impression that most forecasts are made the day before (issued at 6PM). The 7 AM forecast the next day seems to be an "update" as in "still on track" and so on. Sometimes the 6AM actual winds aren't close to the 6AM forecast winds - but since the forecast is issued at 7AM, this shouldn't be.

The solution was used before. Issue an 11:30AM update. This is the most important time for a lot of people, just when they are trying to decide whether to make the drive or not. It is also closest to the sailing time and more likely to be more accurate than the day before.
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cosmicharlie



Joined: 06 Oct 2015
Posts: 0

PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2007 1:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

New England forecasting is rather difficult if not impossible, especially when you are trying to do it from Silicon Valley. Some forecasters seem to be more reliable than others, though.
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alex177



Joined: 04 May 2002
Posts: 36

PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2007 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't know about others, but Matt is a local guy. I used to see him sailing at Fogland and Kalmus. His forecasts were also pretty good, at least in comparison with other iW people.

How sure what is happening now. Perhaps, global warning, El Nino, etc complicate the things?

--alex
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scooper



Joined: 28 May 1987
Posts: 537
Location: Massachusettes

PostPosted: Sun Jun 10, 2007 9:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I used to love the mid-day update! I was very dissaointed when they did away with that.
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SteveFoy



Joined: 15 Jan 1995
Posts: 27

PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2007 9:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They always include in their forecast the disclaimer "Special updates issued as needed". Theoretically, if your looking at today's forecast at 11:30 AM and there are no special updates, one is to assume IWindsurf is still confident in their original forecast. I suppose psychologically you would feel better if there was an official 11:30 forecast which basically said "still on target". But I have seen special updates on numerous occasions which makes me think they are monitoring conditions through out the day. No, they are not perfect but they are usually close enough.
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jkrouwer



Joined: 10 Apr 2000
Posts: 20

PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2007 11:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Most of the special updates I've seen are issued after it's been windy for a few hours - there's not much value in that. There have also been days when iWindsurf calls for marginal wind, I go anyway and there's decent wind and no update.

Let me change my original suggestion about an 11:30 update - I'd rather see an 11:30 forecast.
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USAM1



Joined: 19 Sep 1994
Posts: 35

PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2007 1:14 pm    Post subject: forecasts Reply with quote

guess we all need to get a piece of rope. You know, hold it out to your side, if it is pushed to horizontal, time to go sailing.
but seriously, the weather patterns this season are flukey. maybe a la nina or el nino thing? we need one of those big high pressures to build iin so we get some good southerlies followed by the northwest blow.
have faith, it will blow, and i'm not referring to the forecasts.
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