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jp5
Joined: 19 May 1998 Posts: 3394 Location: OnUr6
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Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 9:35 am Post subject: WIND WHEN?? |
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The meteogram for Leo was predicting winds of 18-25 on Wednesday, now it says 11. How can it be that far off??
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sharkasm
Joined: 10 Apr 2000 Posts: 149
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Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 10:34 am Post subject: |
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Last edited by sharkasm on Sun Sep 21, 2008 5:52 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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jp5
Joined: 19 May 1998 Posts: 3394 Location: OnUr6
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Posted: Wed Mar 26, 2008 9:58 am Post subject: |
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iWindsurf for Friday:
Friday, March 28th
Time 12a 1a 2a 3a 4a 5a 6a 7a 8a 9a 10a 11a 12p 1p 2p 3p 4p 5p 6p 7p 8p 9p 10p 11p
Wind (mph) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 0 3 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7
Direction
Temperature (F) 54 53 52 52 51 50 51 52 53 54 56 58 58 57 57 58 58 59 58 57 57 56 56 55
Cloud Cover (%) 64 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rain (in) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Visibility (mi) 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15
National Weather Service:
FRI...W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND WAVES 1 TO 3 FT. W SWELL 4 TO 6 FT AND S 3 FT.
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geohaye
Joined: 03 Apr 2000 Posts: 1437
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Posted: Wed Mar 26, 2008 10:15 am Post subject: |
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mkrasnoff is right to suggest looking at all models. different factors are taken into account. and weather being what it is, you never know for sure which divergent direction the meteorological soup will turn at the last moment.
iWindsurf gives you the National Weather Service models, as well as it's own take on things. I'd suggest looking at all 3 of these for Friday:
Attachments = screen shots of current:
Leo iW Meteogram Forecast for Fri: GFS (government) MODEL
Leo iW Meteogram Forecast for Fri: NAM (government) MODEL
Leo iW Meteogram Forecast for Fri: WFS (weatherflow) MODEL
Let's hope NAM & WFS (~9 MPH) are wrong this time, and GFS (~18 MPH) is right!
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shibumi57
Joined: 13 Jul 1998 Posts: 68 Location: San Francisco
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Posted: Wed Mar 26, 2008 10:28 am Post subject: Re: WIND WHEN?? |
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jpbassking wrote: | The meteogram for Leo was predicting winds of 18-25 on Wednesday, now it says 11. How can it be that far off?? |
Yawn. Give them a break. It's a forecast. A prediction based on uncertain variables. It's not a promise. It's not a perfect system. I think they do fantastic 80% of the time. The other 20% isn't because they're not working hard. Based on gas prices now, my subscription to iW pays for itself in one to two weekends.
How about you buy so more gear so you can plane at 11?
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jp5
Joined: 19 May 1998 Posts: 3394 Location: OnUr6
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Posted: Wed Mar 26, 2008 11:10 am Post subject: |
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my point is why is the iWindsurf forecast so different from one day to the next and why is it so different from other forecasts which by the way are free.
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victor
Joined: 03 Aug 1998 Posts: 581
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Posted: Wed Mar 26, 2008 11:29 am Post subject: |
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yes, most if not all of the data iwindsurf uses to make forcasts is available for free. they do a pretty good job of interpreting and compiling the data and presenting it in a format us knuckleheads can understand.
i'm partuiculary impressed with the "WFS" graph. it has been pretty accurate for me the past few weeks.
the forecast is an educated guess. there aren't too many times that i'm not able to check the real time wind before i head out.
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isobars
Joined: 12 Dec 1999 Posts: 20946
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Posted: Wed Mar 26, 2008 11:32 am Post subject: |
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Oh, yeah ... NOAA is free. Just like NASA and the DoD are free.
There is no free lunch.
\m/
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sharkasm
Joined: 10 Apr 2000 Posts: 149
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Posted: Wed Mar 26, 2008 11:38 am Post subject: |
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Last edited by sharkasm on Sun Sep 21, 2008 5:53 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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jp5
Joined: 19 May 1998 Posts: 3394 Location: OnUr6
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Posted: Wed Mar 26, 2008 11:55 am Post subject: |
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"If you want to sail the next few days, keep your car loaded and gassed up. Put all your other plans on hold and keep your eye on the sensor.
This should be the boardhead's mantra. "
uh...excuse me??? life doesn't work that way unless you are single, have a trust fund, or own your own business.
THAT IS WHY I LOOK TO THE SO CALLED EXPERTS TO TELL ME HOW TO PLAN MY WEEK. WHAT DON'T YOU PEOPLE UNDERSTAND ABOUT THAT??
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