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Mike Godsey
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andydavis



Joined: 11 Apr 1999
Posts: 263
Location: Point Isabel

PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2007 6:48 pm    Post subject: Mike Godsey Reply with quote

Notice that any criticism of Mike Godsey's forecasts are immediately removed from this forum by the webmeister...try it and see!
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windoggie



Joined: 22 Feb 2002
Posts: 2369

PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2007 7:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

well, what do you know? You're right! Derekd's rating of forecasters in the "berkeley forecasts" thread did indeed go away. Sensitive, aren't they? Silly me, I thought this forum was for us paying customers.
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andydavis



Joined: 11 Apr 1999
Posts: 263
Location: Point Isabel

PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2007 7:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Godsey's principal qualification as a meteorologist is that "he's interested in it...".

Let's see how long this thread stays put.
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sergem



Joined: 24 Oct 2003
Posts: 390

PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2007 7:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Come on, guys. Their sensitivity is understandable.

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. - Niels Bohr

Prediction is easy, forecasting is the real b*&^h - my friend

That said, I wish the forecasts would be written to be readable by mortals, or at least proofread.
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rigatoni



Joined: 25 Feb 1999
Posts: 331

PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2007 7:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

He is sitting in his house overlooking the Hatch in the Gorge and analyzing computer data rather than walking out the door the last couple of days and seeing the trees almost breaking in half from the nuking winds here in SF.

They need someone local to forecast this area.
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patmegrath



Joined: 08 Aug 2004
Posts: 3

PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2007 8:19 pm    Post subject: amen to understandable forecasts Reply with quote

Tell iwindsurf to require that forecasts be written in plain understandable english without all the confusing jargon and slang
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gerritt



Joined: 06 May 1998
Posts: 411
Location: Redwood City, CA

PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2007 8:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey folks, slow down. Overall, Mike and Co's forcasts are pretty good. No one notices when he is right only when he is wrong. More information is a good thing. Check the forcasts against everything else. Look at the satalites, NWS, fog patterns, your local tree, or flag, and then decide whether to go.

If you sail in the winter when the forcasts are not up, then you will soon miss Mike. If you sail only in the summer, and only rely on IW's predictions, then you will have the perception of being burned. If any one remembers life before IW, then you will no dougt agree you got burned much more having to rely on your radio shack weather radio.
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 762

PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2007 8:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mike Godsey here. If any criticisms of my forecast are removed from this forum it is without my knowledge! I will look into it right away and make sure criticisms stay here unless of course the profanity is too creative. There is a link at the bottom of each forecast for feedback to iwindsurf.com. Each day several people send that link to send messages. Or if you like you can send them to me directly at mike@iwindsurf.com

Remember... I only do the Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday forecasts. My forecasts are NEVER on Mon., Tues., Wed. The name of each day's forecaster is at the top of the forecast. It is always a good idea to know who you are aiming at before you pull the trigger.

Regarding the comment below about qualifications. After about 10 years in college and 2 advanced degrees I got pretty good at learning things without a teacher holding my hand. Likewise after 15 years of forecasting 4 days a week for several companies I do have some on-the-job training. The fact that I am still interested in forecasting after all these year is just gravy.

About the comment about not being a local. After 35 years sailing and windsurfing the bay 5 days a week and writing a popular book on Bay Area windsurfing I have a sense of local knowledge. And yes, it if I lived overlooking Crissy the forecasts for that site would be better. But that would not help the Waddell or 3rd. or Palo Alto forecasts a bit. There are simply to many micro-climates in the Bay Area for a window view to be useful for overall forecasting. For sure my forecasts will rarely be as accurate as a noon forecast from some one looking out the window near their favorite site. But then...why would they be reading the forecast.

About all the geek talk in the forecast discussion. There is no reason in the world to read the discussion unless you are the sort of person who wants to know the "why" behind things. Just read the forecast headline or the bullets or the tables and you have the forecast. But there are some people who love the discussion and the geek talk is for them.

As everyone knows, forecasting for the Bay Area is hard. In simple terms the computer models break the whole world into cubes and use all available data to extrapolate the future weather in each cube all the way to the jet stream level. Some of the world's most powerful computers are dedicated to analyzing these cubes. And the resolution of these cubes are of such that they do not even "see" the Golden Gate or San Bruno Gap which are the keys to Bay Area winds. Moreover winds in the wimpy 10 to 30 knot range are simply NOT a priority for the models. Since those winds have little impact on anyone except wind junkies. That is why the NWS forecasts wind of 15-25 knots much of the time. So it is true that the iwindsurf.com forecasts are a long ways from being perfect. They are also always improving. Ask anyone who saw my extended forecasts for the last 2 weeks repeatedly nailing the marine surges several days in advance. Once the computer models get a resolution of about 50 meters then you can make valid personal attacks on the NWS or iwindsurf.com forecasters for bum forecasts. Meanwhile the forecasters are just doing the best they can with the limited tools available.

Thanks for the time and e-mail me anytime.

Mike Godsey, mike@iwindsurf.com
P.S. Let's see how long this message will last....
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beallmd



Joined: 10 May 1998
Posts: 1069

PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2007 9:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I look at a lot of data, but in the end, simply put; Mike is the best we have. Don't totally rely on his forecasting but know nobody knows it better. And he's honest which helps.
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ERROR!!!



Joined: 26 Feb 1998
Posts: 85
Location: East Bay

PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2007 10:49 pm    Post subject: web sites that help wind predictions: Reply with quote

Lawrence Hall of Science, Berkeley hills, view of the bay --

http://sv.berkeley.edu/view/index.html

Exploritorium roof cam, S.F., panorama of the bay --

http://www.stoneclinic.com/cam/

Berkeley Marina, view of the Golden Gate (updated stills) --

http://www.ocscsailing.com/Sailor_Resources.htm

Berkeley sailing basin (updated stills) --

http://www.berkeleycam.net/

Sherman Island --

http://www.rvwa.com/webcam.htm
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