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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 8731
Location: at a computer

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2021 10:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cgoudie1 wrote:
It's also the month that 3 vaccine developers/manufacturers reported excellent
immunity results against Covid-19.

Just say'n

-Craig

boggsman1 wrote:

I say it with a degree of sarcasm, as I firmly believe monetary policy is more of a factor. That said, the US has been the place to be since the GFC. Our tech companies, our younger work force, and our policies are better than that of Europe, China, and Japan. I'll also note that the market has gone straight up since November, so naturally I'll note that's when Joe won.


Yup, that's right... But it was fairly discounted already. Take a look at the market action on the three days (Nov 7-9) , post election day.
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cgoudie1



Joined: 10 Apr 2006
Posts: 2439
Location: Killer Sturgeon Cove

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2021 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I perceive, but that can only be a reaction to what was expected since
nothing had actually happened yet. Also, take a look at the days Oct 28,29,30. A pretty severe dip. It wouldn't have looked quite so good after
the election, if it were averaged over that 2 week period.

All moot anyway (and old news). Today I'm pleased (though maybe
not as pleased as yesterday).

-Craig

boggsman1 wrote:
cgoudie1 wrote:
It's also the month that 3 vaccine developers/manufacturers reported excellent
immunity results against Covid-19.

Just say'n

-Craig

boggsman1 wrote:

I say it with a degree of sarcasm, as I firmly believe monetary policy is more of a factor. That said, the US has been the place to be since the GFC. Our tech companies, our younger work force, and our policies are better than that of Europe, China, and Japan. I'll also note that the market has gone straight up since November, so naturally I'll note that's when Joe won.


Yup, that's right... But it was fairly discounted already. Take a look at the market action on the three days (Nov 7-9) , post election day.
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 8731
Location: at a computer

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2021 1:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cgoudie1 wrote:
I perceive, but that can only be a reaction to what was expected since
nothing had actually happened yet. Also, take a look at the days Oct 28,29,30. A pretty severe dip. It wouldn't have looked quite so good after
the election, if it were averaged over that 2 week period.

All moot anyway (and old news). Today I'm pleased (though maybe
not as pleased as yesterday).

-Craig

boggsman1 wrote:
cgoudie1 wrote:
It's also the month that 3 vaccine developers/manufacturers reported excellent
immunity results against Covid-19.

Just say'n

-Craig

boggsman1 wrote:

I say it with a degree of sarcasm, as I firmly believe monetary policy is more of a factor. That said, the US has been the place to be since the GFC. Our tech companies, our younger work force, and our policies are better than that of Europe, China, and Japan. I'll also note that the market has gone straight up since November, so naturally I'll note that's when Joe won.


Yup, that's right... But it was fairly discounted already. Take a look at the market action on the three days (Nov 7-9) , post election day.


That's right. Market was terrified of 100% Dem control. Then the Repubs did well in the Senate(3 or 4 seats went their way). and Biden won. And we got the vax news. All three events big for the market a year later.
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mrgybe



Joined: 01 Jul 2008
Posts: 5084

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2021 2:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There are two things driving the market...........massive Fed intervention and massive government expenditure with the promise of more to come. Currently Wall Street is ignoring soaring inflation, rapidly escalating energy prices, the prospect of higher taxes, and low consumer confidence. Time to keep a careful watch.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 16743
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2021 3:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The national debt increased by $7.8 trillion during the four years of the Trump administration while mrgybe cheered from the sidelines. Make the world safe, continue to subsidize buggy whips.
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 8731
Location: at a computer

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2021 3:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mrgybe wrote:
There are two things driving the market...........massive Fed intervention and massive government expenditure with the promise of more to come. Currently Wall Street is ignoring soaring inflation, rapidly escalating energy prices, the prospect of higher taxes, and low consumer confidence. Time to keep a careful watch.

I wouldn't discount the insane technological revolution we are smack dab in the middle of. The rapid shift(somewhat forced last year) into a more digital/cloud based economy is creating remarkable efficiencies, and huge gains for tech. Lets not sell American software ingenuity down the river.

Wall Street is not ignoring any of the risk factors above. Let me help you with how Wall Street(which is a broad term ) is proceeding.
A. Inflation: many are banking its "transitory"--that is a temporary.
B. Energy Prices-high, but certainly manageable when the savings rate is 3X the historical average. If they persist, then then both A, and B wont get "ignored".
C. Many Wall street firms are also walking back many tax increases that will be tough to pass with Manchin/Synema blocking.
D. Consumer Confidence dropped in August/September due to Delta, but the rolling level is quite high.

Mr. Gybe...stocks tend to climb the wall of worry, and if you look back in history, they are a critical asset class during times of inflation..


Last edited by boggsman1 on Thu Oct 21, 2021 3:56 pm; edited 1 time in total
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 8731
Location: at a computer

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2021 3:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mac wrote:
The national debt increased by $7.8 trillion during the four years of the Trump administration while mrgybe cheered from the sidelines. Make the world safe, continue to subsidize buggy whips.


True, its "Helicopter money" during a Democratic administration , but its "crickets" when the country puts $7.8 TRIL on the credit card.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 16743
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

boggsman1 wrote:
mac wrote:
The national debt increased by $7.8 trillion during the four years of the Trump administration while mrgybe cheered from the sidelines. Make the world safe, continue to subsidize buggy whips.


True, its "Helicopter money" during a Democratic administration , but its "crickets" when the country puts $7.8 TRIL on the credit card.


Boggs--you have recognize the selective outrage, and reliance on WSJ and Murdoch messaging. You mention the high rate of savings, which has been part of the stimulus. The NYT has run a series of articles on how the increased disposal income, particularly among those who had wealth and got more with the tax cuts, has affected inflation with increased purchasing. We certainly see this in construction in California. Add in supply chain issues, which have multiple causes, but some of it is COVID and some of it is regulation. Deficit spending certainly has some role.

But there is a critical difference, and deficit spending for tax cuts for the wealthy and infrastructure spending are not automatically the same. It depends on whether that deficit spending creates economic activity and wealth that more than makes up for what we put on the credit card. In this country, investments in railroads, roads, airports, ports, higher education, electricity generation, and indeed the space program have all created substantial net economic benefits. Sometimes tax cuts have done that, but I don't believe the record for the Trump era (or Bush era) tax cuts clearly shows a net benefit. We do know that changing those benefits, with 50 Republican Senators in lock step to block progress, is impossible.
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wsurfer



Joined: 17 Aug 2000
Posts: 1471

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2021 6:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Loser 45 has NO clue!

You'd think that a former president of the United States would have the cursory knowledge that Thomas Jefferson did not actually write any of the Constitution, as he was in France at the time. But hey, it's Trump.


https://news.yahoo.com/trump-gets-taken-school-botching-025448647.html
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 16743
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Thu Oct 21, 2021 6:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
A new Congressional Research Service report finds that the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act had little measurable effect on the overall US economy in 2018. And, no, the tax cuts didn’t come remotely close to paying for themselves by turbocharging the economy as President Trump repeatedly promised. This was a surprise to few, since most independent analysts predicted more than a year ago that the law would have little economic impact.

Also unsurprisingly, the 18-page paper set the economic twitterverse afire with comments. Long-time critics of the TCJA say, “I told you so.” Defenders are picking nits in the CRS report and, insisting that they never really promised a big short-term burst of economic growth in any event.

Wildly short of paying for itself

But whatever your priors in this argument, the CRS paper, written by Jane Gravelle and Donald Marples, finds little evidence that the tax cuts had any significant economic benefit. They did substantially lower effective corporate tax rates and generate a flood of stock buybacks and dividends for shareholders. But Gravelle and Marples are a lot like those who looked so hard to find Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction. They searched, but found almost nothing.

And because the TCJA did so little to boost the economy, it fell wildly short of paying for itself in growth-driven new revenue. CRS calculated that the TCJA reduced federal revenue by about $170 billion in Fiscal Year 2018, with corporations benefitting most from the tax cuts.

In fairness, the tax cuts didn’t occur in a vacuum. Some of their benefits may have been offset by President Trump’s own highly restrictive trade policy, or magnified by new deficit spending approved by Congress in 2018. But overall, as TPC predicted in December, 2017, short-term macroeconomic effects were extremely modest. This is consistent with the findings of TaxVox’s quarterly updates on the post-TCJA economy.

Surprising investment patterns

Perhaps the most interesting CRS finding was its analysis of 2018 investment patterns. While the growth of wages and consumption were very modest in 2018, capital spending grew smartly, especially in the first half of the year. But Gravelle and Marples identify a surprising phenomenon: The sectors of the economy that showed the most investment growth were those actually hurt by the TCJA.

For instance, the TCJA reduced the cost of capital for structures by 11.7 percent but investment in structures grew by a modest 5 percent, after taking inflation into account. By contrast, the TCJA raised the after-tax cost of research and development by 3.4 percent yet investment in intellectual property rose by 7.7 percent.

As the report carefully notes: “Looking at changes in the user cost of capital, effects of investments in structures would be expected to be largest, with small (or negative) effects on intellectual property. To date, this pattern has not been observed.”

Modest wage growth

What about wages? The Trump Administration, you’ll remember, made a succession of bold promises about the TCJA’s ability to drive wage growth. Over an indeterminate period of time, the White House insisted, business tax cuts would result in new investment, greater worker productivity, and, eventually, wage growth of $4,000-$9,000 annually.

Some productivity-driven wage growth may yet occur over the long term, but it certainly didn’t happen in Year One. CRS concluded the after adjusting for inflation, wages grew more slowly than overall economic output, and at a pace relatively consistent with wage growth prior to passage of the TCJA. That was especially disappointing considering that many predicted tight labor markets would result in accelerated wage growth, even without the TCJA.

Thanks to effective White House messaging, news organizations paid great attention to anecdotal stories of firms giving workers bonuses in late 2017, just as the TCJA was becoming law. But as Gravelle and Marples note, reported bonuses were equivalent to about $28 per US worker. And many were announced so firms could deduct the cost at their higher 2017 tax rate of 35 percent instead of the 2018 rate of 21 percent.

Where did the money go?

The authors estimate the one strong effect of the TCJA was its deep cut in effective corporate tax rates, from 17.2 percent in 2017 to 8.8 percent in 2018.

And, they found, multinational corporations repatriated $664 billion in foreign earnings in 2018—more than the previous three years combined—after the TCJA cut taxes on repatriated overseas earnings.

If effective corporate rates were cut in half, and firms had new access to $664 billion in overseas income, yet they didn’t spend that extra cash on wages or investment, where did it go?

CRS confirms what was well-reported at the time: Much of it went to $1 trillion in stock buybacks.


Crickets from buggy whip as he took his to the bank.
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