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Sunday Forecast Test: IW v WG v. NOAA

 
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donwh



Joined: 10 Apr 2000
Posts: 133

PostPosted: Sat Sep 11, 2021 8:48 am    Post subject: Sunday Forecast Test: IW v WG v. NOAA Reply with quote

Sunday 9/12 wind forecast for Cape Cod/SE MA:
Who will win?
To me, they are drastically different. I am lucky, I can drive to my local spots within a half hour. For those who are far away (like driving to Cape Cod), the forecast will make a BIG difference.
After 20+ years of looking at forecasts, I am guessing (and hoping) that iw is getting it wrong. We shall see...
Of course, all forecasts are notorious for changing at the last minute

From iwindsurf:

Winds will primarily come from the SW throughout the day in New England. The strongest winds will be on the Cape at 12-20 kts, while the rest of New England should see more moderate 8-15 kt breeze.

Windguru has 20 plus starting at 11am-7PM - 3 Stars (highest rating)

NOAA Buzzards Bay:
SUN
SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to
5 ft.

NOAA Narragansett Bay:
SUN
SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to
4 ft.[b]
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rswabsin



Joined: 14 May 2000
Posts: 432
Location: New Jersey

PostPosted: Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well I see at 9:30 AM its averaging 30 at Kalmus and 28 at West Dennis. So NOAA and WG are closest. Enjoy the wind!

I'm also hoping the NOAA forecast for NJ (15-25) proves correct vs IW (14-1Cool.
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flaherty



Joined: 01 May 1997
Posts: 430

PostPosted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Check out a site Ventusky . Click on the wind, and you can select the day and time. Not sure what model they use, but I've found them to be pretty accurate. Fur yesterday they were forecasting over 25 . Also seem to be accurate between the wind on nantucket sound and Buzzards Bay.
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donwh



Joined: 10 Apr 2000
Posts: 133

PostPosted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In terms of predictions, the winner wasn't iw.
Not really surprised as I use their data mainly for current conditions. I was just surprised at the discrepancy between their day-out forecast and other sites. It was much lower. And I've been a member for 20 years.
Luckily most of us continue to rely on all available forecast data and see what works. I hope no one missed a good day because of a lousy forecast.
Bottom line, a fun 20-35 mph day at Horseneck, looked like other places in the se MA/Cape/Ri area kicked ass also!

I'll add Ventusky to my list, thanks.
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us85



Joined: 29 Aug 1999
Posts: 42

PostPosted: Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, if you go against the model consensus (including your own WF-WRF model), you really should explain your reasoning. I don't think they ever mention what models they look at or which one they think is right or wrong. The closest they come is saying something like "I think the tables are a little too optimistic".
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