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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 16658
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is Trump lying?

https://time.com/5799765/intelligence-report-pandemic-dangers/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_term=politics_&linkId=83992065&fbclid=IwAR3xKaDXG2kqkSaISn0FpkAn95DBWzNIapJs22XWdwp4LEFAH7J_fzbz-Hw
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real-human



Joined: 02 Jul 2011
Posts: 12928
Location: on earth

PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

isobars wrote:
I often take a 4-to 5-mile hike in the mall, which opens for mall walkers hours before its stores open. The weather inside is always perfect, there's nothing to trip over, and there are often 100-200 yard stretches free of other people so I can walk backwards or run.

It was virtually empty today. Even long after today's time switch could be the reason, I'd guess the walker numbers were down 70-80%, from 50-ish to a dozen-ish. I could have run ... not jogged; RUN -- almost the entire time without bothering anyone. Why? I've got to attribute it to overblown coronavirus fear.

"Overblown", because we don't have to touch ANYTHING there, we're hundreds of miles from the Seattle nursing home that's the main coronavirus petri dish in WA state, influenza is much more deadly, at least 25% of these people don't even get a flu shot, and -- fake news aside* -- physicians inside and outside the CDC say our White House is doing a great job of fighting coronavirus.

So why the panic? Because the same fake news sources that claim $500 million/$330 million* = 1 million say Pence and Trump are the idiots.

* For those who flunked 2nd grade arithmetic, 5/3 = 1.7, not 1,000,000.


iso you have been running backwards your entire life... admit it you are born backwards. And probably dropped on your head at birth.

nope moron, the countries where the outbreak was not brought into focus were or got out of control till drastic measures went into place.

And now people here woke up and are not doing the wrong thing, they are changing their ways because we do not want the same to happen to us. So people are now washing their hands. We are changing our behavior and hopefully for the long term. Imagine this, just washing your hands and not going to work when sick can have a huge benefit to society.
,
China Iran, Italy, South Korea had to step in and take drastic measures, hopefully we will not have to. And I do not think we will have to now that everyone knows and is acting on it.

My evidence is anecdotal but when I was recently flying about a week ago. I had to stand in line for the first time in the men's bathroom. It was not for Montezuma's revenge it was for the sinks, there was actually a line at the sinks to wash our hands. A friend of mine was visiting when I got back and he is a MD, and he noted from what I mentioned that we may have a good effect that there will be fewer other illnesses from this reaction that is taking place. Another friend that was visiting before I left, a recent grad from Stanford another MD and he also gave me a thumbs up on the procedures I was going to use to fly.

I have often told people that flus are more difficult to catch than people realize and my example was airplanes, that depending on the size rarely if at all do I get sick right after traveling, and there has to be a few people per plane that are sick so I do not believe it is aerosol spread. The numbers would be massive as people fly. I do believe it can be from the sick person touching something and the next touching it and touching their face somewhere.. Thus I did carry wipes with me and cleaned my seatbelt, my armrests, my luggage handles when I picked them up, the cart, and had one in my hand as i departed the plane to clean my hands and not forget too.

this study backs up my points.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2FMxqSgSbWIMwdzBo6d3ll9KsRivvF1B7yTk4kvUjHDJrjfiqIZhPafw0

Quote:
Routes of transmission
COVID-19 is transmitted via droplets and fomites during close unprotected contact between an infector and infectee. Airborne spread has not been reported for COVID-19 and it is not believed to be a major driver of transmission based on available evidence; however, it can be envisaged if certain aerosol-generating procedures are conducted in health care facilities. Fecal shedding has been demonstrated from some patients, and viable virus has been identified in a limited number of case reports. However, the fecal-oral route does not appear to be a driver of COVID-19 transmission; its role and significance for COVID-19 remains to be determined. Viral shedding is discussed in the Technical Findings (Annex C).

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Last edited by real-human on Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:54 pm; edited 1 time in total
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boardsurfr



Joined: 23 Aug 2001
Posts: 1253

PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's a couple of pretty basic posts about the underlying science. The first one illustrates why a relative low number of confirmed cases does not mean we will remain safe:
https://boardsurfr.blogspot.com/2020/03/corona-virus-and-basic-science.html

The second post looks compares the flu virus to the new corona virus, and explains why there is reason to be concerned:
https://boardsurfr.blogspot.com/2020/03/corona-virus-versus-influenza.html

Both posts contain links to sources and related explanatory articles.

As of this evening (3/10/2020), the US has 981 confirmed cases. This still seems like a low number, but look at Italy in comparison:
Italy, a country with about one fifth of the US population, had a similar infection rate (< 200 cases) about 2 weeks ago, on February 23rd. Since then, the number of cases in Italy has increased to more than 10,000, and travel restrictions have been issued for the entire country.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 16658
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:40 pm    Post subject: Re: Coronavirus Reply with quote

mac wrote:
Coronavirus numbers worldwide have now hit 106,000 cases with about 3600 deaths. That’s a death rate of about 3.5%. By comparison, despite the nonsense spread by Ken Cuccenelli, the death rate for influenza is 0.1%. (3400 deaths in 34.5 million infections for this season). Certainly coronavirus is not the most deadly pandemic we’ve faced—but if 30 million Americans contract the disease, and 3% of the die, that is over one million people! Sure they’re mostly going to be old, but one of them could be in your family.

The US death rate looks much higher—about 6%—but that is probably misleading. Health officials in Washington are pretty sure that the virus has been around for three weeks—which suggests there are far more exposures than the roughly 300 confirmed cases. (19 deaths so far, would be a rate just over 6%. The number of us deaths compared to world numbers suggest that the infection rate is about twice the confirmed rate). The good news is that children under 10 were not hammered by the disease in China.

Several things are clear by now. First, Trump’s “destroy the government” approach has made matters worse. The lack of funding, the end of cooperation with most of the countries we used to work with on pandemics, and the appointment of hacks like Pence and Cuccinelli are an effort to control messaging, not disease. Second, the rapid deflation of the world economy puts a torch to the Trump/Trumpist/white nationalist fantasy that we can retreat to our country and roll up the borders. Too much of the world economy is interdependent. You don’t have to like it, but denying facts and science is not working well for the GOP.


I gave a scary number if 30 million contract the disease. Congress’ physician has told the members in a closed session that he expects 70-150 million people will contract the disease.

How’s that anti-science thing going for you GOP voters now?
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real-human



Joined: 02 Jul 2011
Posts: 12928
Location: on earth

PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

here is a post that a friend and his daughter shared, she is a MD

Quote:
I am writing to you from Bergamo, Italy, at the heart of the coronavirus crisis. The news media in the US has not captured the severity of what is happening here. I am writing this post because each of you, today, not the government, not the school district, not the mayor, each individual citizen has the chance, today to take actions that will deter the Italian situation from becoming your own country’s reality. The only way to stop this virus is to limit contagion. And the only way to limit contagion is for millions of people to change their behavior today.

If you are in Europe or the US you are weeks away from where we are today in Italy.

I can hear you now. “It’s just a flu. It only affects old people with preconditions”

There are 2 reasons why Coronavirus has brought Italy to it’s knees. First it is a flu is devastating when people get really sick they need weeks of ICU – and, second, because of how fast and effectively it spreads. There is 2 week incubation period and many who have it never show symptoms.

When Prime Minister Conte announced last night that the entire country, 60 million people, would go on lock down, the line that struck me most was “there is no more time.” Because to be clear, this national lock down, is a hail mary. What he means is that if the numbers of contagion do not start to go down, the system, Italy, will collapse.

Why? Today the ICUs in Lombardy are at capacity – more than capacity. They have begun to put ICU units in the hallways. If the numbers do not go down, the growth rate of contagion tells us that there will be thousands of people who in a matter of a week? two weeks? who will need care. What will happen when there are 100, or a 1000 people who need the hospital and only a few ICU places left?

On Monday a doctor wrote in the paper that they have begun to have to decide who lives and who dies when the patients show up in the emergency room, like what is done in war. This will only get worse.

There are a finite number of drs, nurses, medical staff and they are getting the virus. They have also been working non-stop, non-stop for days and days. What happens when the drs, nurses and medical staff are simply not able to care for the patients, when they are not there?

And finally for those who say that this is just something that happens to old people, starting yesterday the hospitals are reporting that younger and younger patients – 40, 45, 18, are coming in for treatment.

You have a chance to make a difference and stop the spread in your country. Push for the entire office to work at home today, cancel birthday parties, and other gatherings, stay home as much as you can. If you have a fever, any fever, stay home. Push for school closures, now. Anything you can do to stop the spread, because it is spreading in your communities – there is a two week incubation period – and if you do these things now you can buy your medical system time.

And for those who say it is not possible to close the schools, and do all these other things, locking down Italy was beyond anyone’s imagination a week ago.

Soon you will not have a choice, so do what you can now.

Please share.

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real-human



Joined: 02 Jul 2011
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Location: on earth

PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

add this to support the above post.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/?utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_source=facebook&utm_term=2020-03-11T16%3A56%3A39&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR0u7crmpcmHDwyODuVRxlRuEjrUHqcbT25hwCxU9VjX-MzGDip2ZTqTIRY

The Extraordinary Decisions Facing Italian Doctors
There are now simply too many patients for each one of them to receive adequate care.


MARCH 11, 2020

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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 16658
Location: Berkeley, California

PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

isobars wrote:
Influenza is a much more deadly disease. Get your priorities straight, fearmonger.


Dementia. Occurs when you read Trump tweets and watch Hannity.
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swchandler



Joined: 08 Nov 1993
Posts: 10124

PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

---

Last edited by swchandler on Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:51 pm; edited 1 time in total
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swchandler



Joined: 08 Nov 1993
Posts: 10124

PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

boardsurfr,

I appreciate your thoughtful and educated responses at your blog site addressing a difficult and novel health threat that we all need to take very seriously.


Last edited by swchandler on Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:56 pm; edited 1 time in total
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real-human



Joined: 02 Jul 2011
Posts: 12928
Location: on earth

PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

here we go
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