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Climate change and Cape Cod wind
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flaherty



Joined: 01 May 1997
Posts: 415

PostPosted: Fri May 31, 2019 7:58 am    Post subject: Climate change and Cape Cod wind Reply with quote

It seems like the wind speed on Cape Cod has decreased over the years. The start of this season seems particularly bad. And last summer wasn't good. Maybe it's just me, and I'm getting long in the tooth. But summer Bermuda highs which produce our nice SW winds are a memory.
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boardsurfr



Joined: 23 Aug 2001
Posts: 1210

PostPosted: Fri May 31, 2019 8:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's been a bit disappointing this year. June was pretty bad last year - I got just 2 planing sessions. But 2017 was good in June, with 16 sessions (3 on 7.0 or larger). But June can be great or terrible. Here's a list of planing June sessions for the last 6 years:
2013 - 8
2014 - 2
2015 - 5
2016 - 10
2017 - 16
2018 - 2

The actual counts might be a bit higher, since I sometimes forget to enter sessions in my database.
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rswabsin



Joined: 14 May 2000
Posts: 399
Location: New Jersey

PostPosted: Fri May 31, 2019 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting post. We rely on the same Bermuda High along the NJ coast for spring/summer S to SW winds. I'd have to say the past 2 years have actually been very good for us further south. The Bermuda High is still occurring but maybe its location over the ocean has shifted and is not as favorable for the SW winds that make it up to Cape Cod. On average, I'd say we've gotten about 2 southerly wind days per week through mid April and May that gave anywhere from upper teen to upper 20's wind. But its consistently S to SSE.
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fox



Joined: 09 Sep 1997
Posts: 112
Location: Pine Point, Maine

PostPosted: Fri May 31, 2019 2:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Go to the Wind Archives and step through the years for a site. It's not just you Crying or Very sad
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paulf.



Joined: 21 Mar 1996
Posts: 420

PostPosted: Fri May 31, 2019 6:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

it seems especially that the thermal effect amplifying the bermuda high isn't working.remember when it could even be blowing N in the am but on a hot dry summer day that would shut down about 11-12 and then the SW would build to sailable by 3pm. pushed later into the day over several years and doesn't seem to work any more. is the water warming up too early in the season and blunting the effect? i have sailed 50-60 days in 10month season in the past.. recent years have not done winter sailing but only got 6 days total last season being loaded for bear for any day off that there was wind(i have no problem going out on 8m). very frustrating.
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lasrer



Joined: 15 May 2000
Posts: 109

PostPosted: Fri May 31, 2019 7:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My observation over watching for the last 30 years is that the thermals dont work when it is in the 50s on the land. Need Upper 60s+ to suck in the strong seabreeze. Havent seen high enough temperatures yet.
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donwh



Joined: 10 Apr 2000
Posts: 112

PostPosted: Fri May 31, 2019 8:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I read an article somewhere that the Bermuda high which produces the predictable sw winds is settling more in a different direction, which gives us more of a ssw wind gradient, which just isn't the same...

I swear some of these forces are conspiring to kill the sport.
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boardsurfr



Joined: 23 Aug 2001
Posts: 1210

PostPosted: Fri May 31, 2019 9:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One thing to keep in mind is that the iWindsurf meter at Kalmus is quite direction-dependent. 14 mph in SSW is about the same as a 17 mph reading in WSW. Also, the direction sometimes still seems to be off by ~15 degrees (too much west for Kalmus).

But the really strong thermals only happen in SW or WSW.

I just checked, I got the same number of planing sessions in Kalmus (34) in 2016, 2017 and 2018. All sessions were from May - November. The years before had about 5-10 more sessions, but most of these were from January-April. I probably catch about 3 out of 4 of sailable days with halfway decent weather, except that most years do not include a couple of weeks in May when we are in Hatteras.

Looking at only summer days with wind average of 25 mph and above, 2018 actually was a good year, with 9 high wind days. 6 of them were late August to middle of September.

Looking at the monthly wind statistics for Kalmus on iWindsurf, it's tough to see a trend. The variations from year to year seem larger than the long-term variations. For example, August 2018 was not great, but August 1996 was worse. Maybe the years where a summer months or two are just great stick to the memory better..
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 19255

PostPosted: Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gorge corridor (aka Hood River) dawn patrol dropped from a few times a week to a few times a year a couple of decades ago. Wind "out east" in the Gorge has been highly erratic the last three years in frequency, duration, direction, and quality (far too many one-day intense "drive-bys" with 500-1,000 yards wind shadows). Polar bears are thriving, according to apolitical professionals whose life's work is studying polar bears.

Is any of this climate, or just weather?
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dllee



Joined: 03 Jul 2009
Posts: 4591
Location: East Bay

PostPosted: Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Berkeley windier than ever as I have used 5.3 and smaller the past 3 weeks.
Foiling, with hindsight, a 4.2 is the biggest I need. 160 lbs.
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