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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999 Posts: 17752 Location: Berkeley, California
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nw30
Joined: 21 Dec 2008 Posts: 6485 Location: The eye of the universe, Cen. Cal. coast
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Posted: Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:30 pm Post subject: |
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Okay, whatever they chose to publish, sorry about the leg. |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999 Posts: 17752 Location: Berkeley, California
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Posted: Sat Sep 16, 2017 12:19 am Post subject: |
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Didya read it? Didn't think so. I'll post a takedown of Judith Curry tomorrow just for y'all. |
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MalibuGuru
Joined: 11 Nov 1993 Posts: 9300
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Posted: Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:12 am Post subject: |
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Meanwhile, the northern hemisphere is cooling with a snowstorm in the Rockies....as usual. |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999 Posts: 17752 Location: Berkeley, California
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Posted: Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:54 am Post subject: |
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The details about Judith Curry's willingness to draw conclusions far beyond the data are laid out in a response to gybe in flooding down in Texas. Malibu still doesn't comprehend the difference between weather and climate, but he does read Breitbart religiously. |
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MalibuGuru
Joined: 11 Nov 1993 Posts: 9300
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Posted: Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:39 pm Post subject: |
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mac wrote: | The details about Judith Curry's willingness to draw conclusions far beyond the data are laid out in a response to gybe in flooding down in Texas. Malibu still doesn't comprehend the difference between weather and climate, but he does read Breitbart religiously. |
Isn't a Texas flood a single weather event? |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999 Posts: 17752 Location: Berkeley, California
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Posted: Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:12 pm Post subject: |
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Hmm, multiple "100 year" storms in Houston in less than a decade, 4 hurricanes visible on satellite photos at the same time, 215 mile an hour wind peaks with one of them--must be weather, regardless of what the IPPC report projected. |
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MalibuGuru
Joined: 11 Nov 1993 Posts: 9300
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Posted: Sun Sep 17, 2017 6:51 pm Post subject: |
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mac wrote: | Hmm, multiple "100 year" storms in Houston in less than a decade, 4 hurricanes visible on satellite photos at the same time, 215 mile an hour wind peaks with one of them--must be weather, regardless of what the IPPC report projected. |
If you've ever studied statistics you'd understand that events occur in groups or clusters.
We went 12 years without a major storm hitting the U.S. Couldn't be better than this. |
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nw30
Joined: 21 Dec 2008 Posts: 6485 Location: The eye of the universe, Cen. Cal. coast
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Posted: Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:13 pm Post subject: |
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I couldn't agree more.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Climate Change Hype Doesn’t Help
The bigger issue than global warming is that more people are choosing to live in coastal areas.
By Ryan Maue
Sept. 17, 2017 2:26 p.m. ET
As soon as Hurricanes Harvey and Irma made landfall in the U.S., scientists, politicians and journalists began to discuss the role of climate change in natural disasters. Although a clear scientific consensus has emerged over the past decade that climate change influences hurricanes in the long run, its effect upon any individual storm is unclear. Anyone trying to score political points after a natural disaster should take a deep breath and review the science first.
As a meteorologist with access to the best weather-forecast model data available, I watched each hurricane’s landfall with particular interest. Harvey and Irma broke the record 12-year major hurricane landfall drought on the U.S. coastline. Since Wilma in October 2005, 31 major hurricanes had swirled in the North Atlantic but all failed to reach the U.S. with a Category 3 or higher intensity.
Even as we worked to divine exactly where the hurricanes would land, a media narrative began to form linking the devastating storms to climate change. Some found it ironic that states represented by “climate deniers” were being pummeled by hurricanes. Alarmists reveled in the irony that Houston, home to petrochemical plants, was flooded by Harvey, while others gleefully reported that President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago might be inundated by Irma.
How to put these two hurricanes into proper context? An informative website from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, synthesizes reams of research literature on the links between hurricanes and global warming. Over the next century, climate models generally indicate fewer but stronger storms—between 2% and 11% greater average storm intensity—with substantially increased rain rates. Against the background of slow sea-level rise, explosive coastal population growth will overwhelmingly exacerbate any hurricane’s damages. In the aggregate, the global-warming signal may just now be emerging out of our noisy observational records, and we may not know certainly for several decades. These conclusions are hardly controversial in the climate-science community.
My own research, cited in a recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, found that during the past half-century tropical storms and hurricanes have not shown an upward trend in frequency or accumulated energy. Instead they remain naturally variable from year-to-year. The global prevalence of the most intense storms (Category 4 and 5) has not shown a significant upward trend either. Historical observations of extreme cyclones in the 1980s, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, are in sore need of reanalysis.
By focusing on whether climate change caused a hurricane, journalists fail to appreciate the complexity of extreme weather events. While most details are still hazy with the best climate modeling tools, the bigger issue than global warming is that more people are choosing to live in coastal areas, where hurricanes certainly will be most destructive.
The nascent field of “attribution science” attempts to explain how climate change may affect characteristics of a given hurricane using models in “what if” mode. Such research requires a faithful reproduction of events and predictions of the future constrained by subjective choices within computer models. This research also takes time—which means other scientists must examine the evidence with patience and judiciousness not usually seen on Twitter or cable news.
Still, the scientific community already knows plenty about hurricanes and climate change—knowledge it has accumulated over two decades through peer-reviewed research, academic conferences and voluminous national and international assessments. Yet climate scientists all too often speculate during interviews rather than refer to IPCC reports or their cousins from the U.S. National Climate Assessment. Some climate scientists have peddled tenuous theories with no contemporaneous research evidence. Advocacy groups package these talking points for easy consumption by journalists, who eagerly repeat them.
The historical record books contain dozens of devastating hurricane landfalls over the past century, any of which, if repeated, would be catastrophic regardless of additional climate-change effects. To prepare for the next hurricane, the U.S. needs the best weather forecasts, evacuation plans and leadership. These plans should be built on sound science, not speculation, overselling or exaggeration. Hurricane science in this political climate already has enough spin.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-change-hype-doesnt-help-1505672774 |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999 Posts: 17752 Location: Berkeley, California
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Posted: Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:37 pm Post subject: |
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An excellent article--that acknowledges climate change. Which noted, and I agree (and have for decades) that too many people live in hazardous zones.
Let me know when you have a majority of Republican legislators willing to buck the real estate speculation and do something to stop encouraging that behavior. |
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