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Need Pismo help!
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1260

PostPosted: Thu Jun 15, 2017 11:43 am    Post subject: Need Pismo help! Reply with quote

Hi Pismo Gang!

So after 3 days forecasting for Pismo I have one home run and 2 strikeouts. The issue is the tiny counter-clockwise spinning eddy that can create southerly winds even when there are solid WNW winds nearby. I am pretty sure that compressional heating in the lee of the mountains are creating a small low pressure area just North of Pismo.

To verify I need a report from someone who lives or has spent time in the area in the red diamond below. Please contact me at mike@iwindsurf.com

Mike

This is the first day of our new human Pismo forecasts. From previous experience we know that it will take us a couple of seasons to get a feel for all the local factors that make the model forecasts inaccurate. This will really be true once the marine layer clouds develop and the NW winds weaken.

You can really speed up the process by sending us feedback about forecast errors and local knowledge that will help us improve the forecasts. Mail comments to mike@iwindsurf.com and I will forward them to the whole forecast team. Thanks for your patience!

The new Southern California forecast layout goes from North to South so Pismo will lead the forecasts while San Diego will end the list.

The animation below shows some of the variables we are looking at for Pismo forecasts during spring NW winds. The complex topography up and downwind of Pismo makes forecasting difficult but we will get better with time.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



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Last edited by windfind on Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:02 pm; edited 1 time in total
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hitech



Joined: 13 Aug 2000
Posts: 71

PostPosted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mike
Thanks for getting this going for the central coast. Pismo is for kiters so how about helping out the resident population of windsurfers and expanding the forecast to include Lake Lopez and Arroyo Laguna.
Other kiters use Morro Bay/Cayucas so the might like that area included.

Again, we appreciate the attention to this part of the Cal coast and it just leaves us wanting more.
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airwave



Joined: 29 Jun 2000
Posts: 350

PostPosted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 9:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great to hear the new forecast.
I agree with Hitech.
A forecast that covers Arroyo would be great to.
It and Pismo would get the C Coast covered.
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1260

PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hitech wrote:
Mike
Thanks for getting this going for the central coast. Pismo is for kiters so how about helping out the resident population of windsurfers and expanding the forecast to include Lake Lopez and Arroyo Laguna.
Other kiters use Morro Bay/Cayucas so the might like that area included.


Hi hitech and rest of the Central California coast gang,

I don't mind making a fool out of myself trying to learn to forecast Pismo but making a fool of myself at 3 new sites at the same time would penetrate even my thick skin. So we are taking baby steps into Central coast forecasting. We do not want to make the mistakes we made in the early days of Southern California forecasting.

On my forecast days (Th, Fri, Sat, Sun) I will add the best computer forecast I can find for the Arroyo Laguna area and post that in the Human forecast. That way I can watch it and the sensor reports and gradually learn.

Lopez will take much more time since it is about the only place on coastal California I have not personally sailed. I really have to spend some time there get a picture of all the local topography on a day with some marine layer to begin to do a decent forecast.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com


Last edited by windfind on Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:30 am; edited 1 time in total
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hitech



Joined: 13 Aug 2000
Posts: 71

PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mike
I do understand the need for the incremental approach and hope the learning curve is quick. Much of the coast seems to work on the same basic pattern but the microclimates are a factor. Lately, it seems that when the model tables show 14-15 for Arroyo it will blow 25+. Offshore buoys seem to be my best predictor (Cape San Martin) for Good wind there.
Lopez has traditionally worked when coast is fogged in and it is 90+ inland (Paso Robles for example) but there are a lot of exceptions to that rule.
Good luck in learning the area.
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windward1



Joined: 18 Jun 2000
Posts: 977

PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Mike,

Your new "Point of Interest" sail symbols are nice, but you have the one labeled "San Luis Reservoir" located by Lake Naciemento.

Do not want to steer people wrong....

W1
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hitech



Joined: 13 Aug 2000
Posts: 71

PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 10:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mike
Regarding the request for sailors living within the diamond-
If you take the diamond literally, you will get very few people living there. The end of the diamond closest to the coast falls on Dinosaur park and just outside the area of homes between 101 and ocean. Immediately east of the diamond tip are hotels most of the way to the Pismo pier. The mountain side of 101 within diamond has a few new homes, about 1-3 streets deep and seem to be 2nd vacation homes and going further inland is nature conservancy land, ranch land, oil well land and finally the Edna Valley vineyards with only scatttered estates and wineries.
Expanding the diamond west gets a lot actual homes to the west and inland Pismo east toward Arroyo Grande.
While am just moving to this area, I currently live in Shell Beach outside the diamond more toward the 193 on the map and just bought a house east of the diamond in AG (straight north of the G in Arroyo Grande. I have been visiting family here and sailing for 30 years and am glad to try to help answer questions if I can. There is a lot of local topography around that channels the wind, along with big time temperature differences within just a short distance that messes with the wind.
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windward1



Joined: 18 Jun 2000
Posts: 977

PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Now instead of saying "San Luis Reservoir", the Point of Interest Sail says "Ventura Rocks". Maybe Ventura does Rock, but really?
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1260

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Hitech,

Thanks for the details about the area in the red diamond. It would be great to chat with you about the temperature difference you see around the red diamond on the map in different conditions.

There is something going on in the Pismo area that even 3km res. models are not seeing. And this is what triggering the eddy like southerly winds on days when there is promising NW to WNW winds at the ocean buoys.

Please e-mail me at mike@iwindsurf.com

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com
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nw30



Joined: 21 Dec 2008
Posts: 3917
Location: The eye of the universe, Cen. Cal. coast

PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Even though the new Pismo forecasts don't do much for the ocean windsurfers (that's kiter's territory), it can help for the Lopez Lake windsurfers. It can show the effects of the thermal wind which Lopez depends on. A southerly flow often is a good indicator for the lake, which often accompanies the thermal push.
So if the first map was to include the lake as well, you'd have a better thing going on, IMO of course.

_________________
I don't drink the 'cool' aid, I drink tequila, it's more honest.
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