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Update #3: Perfect Eddy yet WEAK winds?

 
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1899

PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 9:48 am    Post subject: Update #3: Perfect Eddy yet WEAK winds? Reply with quote

Hi Gang,

See updates at bottom of thread

For days we have been forecasting a marine surge Tuesday PM or Wednesday PM but saying that it would be sort of a marine ooze" on Monday and Tuesday PM. Which was sort of weird since usually marine surges come down like a hammer with an abrupt switch from heat to chilly fog.

What made this event different was the slow ramp up of wind as eddy just west of the coast created SW flow and increased the fog on Monday and most of Tuesday.

And only in the last 12 hours or so did we get the big pressure gradient change that resulted in the powerful Sherman Island winds today.

The graphic below from 7AM today illustrates all these events. It also shows the impact of the pressure gradients to Redding, Sacramento and Bakersfield. And if you look at the numbers carefully you can see why today all 3 pressure gradients are in play.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



PRESSURE GRADIENT RSB .jpg
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Last edited by windfind on Sat May 27, 2017 9:48 am; edited 1 time in total
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1899

PostPosted: Thu May 25, 2017 5:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Gang,

As you can see in the video below today's eddy looks pretty ugly west of the Bay Area. The marine layer got so deep that the marine layer clouds broke through the weak inversion and partially mixed out. So the winds were a little weaker than forecast.

The eddy spins for at least one more day. Last Friday I forecast that the eddy would make it until this weekend. It look like I was wrong...

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1899

PostPosted: Sat May 27, 2017 9:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Gang,

Yesterday, Friday May 26, was a weird day. There was a perfectly formed eddy west of the Bay Area throwing southerly winds towards our coast but the winds were weak at almost every site on the coasts and inside the Bay. What happened?

And it was one of those unusual days when I was lowering the already weak wind forecast even more at 11:30PM. The 7AM issue was the very weak inversion and the very deep marine layer which are not conducive to strong wind.

But by mid day it was clear we were going to see a sort of "reverse clearing" that would leave marine layer clouds in the Central Valley even as the coast cleared. These clouds limited the heating in the Central Valley so the pressure gradients never got strong enough to suck in those southerly eddy winds.

You can see most of this in the satellite imagery below from early morning to about 5PM.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



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TheItalianJobber



Joined: 09 Sep 2003
Posts: 120

PostPosted: Sat May 27, 2017 2:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This may change today with the sun, you think?
Maybe in the mid PM?
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TheItalianJobber



Joined: 09 Sep 2003
Posts: 120

PostPosted: Sun May 28, 2017 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I guess it did... Very Happy
[img][/img]



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