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Maui update: Sept. 2 the pacific weather continues messy!

 
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1899

PostPosted: Mon Aug 31, 2015 5:54 pm    Post subject: Maui update: Sept. 2 the pacific weather continues messy! Reply with quote

Hi Gang,

Take a look at the animation below of the 4 hurricanes currently transiting Hawaiian waters south of the North Pacific High.

Never in recorded history has there been 4 hurricanes at the same time in these waters.

Meteorologically speaking having 4 hurricanes at the same time in Hawaiian waters is sort of like the Gorge having a whole summer season of EAST winds or the Bay Area having a whole summer season without a marine layer. It could happen but it would really make you think something is out of whack.

As you may know we run the Hurricane Sensor Mesonet for NOAA and other government agencies so we really keep on top of these storms. Today Shea, one of our east coast meteorologist, did a blog noting that for the first time in history the Cape Verde Islands off of Africa saw a hurricane develop before landfall:

http://blog.weatherflow.com/cape-verde-hurricane-makes-history/

Hurricanes thrive on warm ocean waters and it is becoming clear that the pacific blob and other sources of ocean stored heat are having an unprecedented impact on hurricane genesis this season.

To see our Gorge sensor crew in action installing one of our hurricane sensors check out this drone video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4CvhEa1ANI

To get an idea how extensive our Hurricane network is go to this page and just zoom in to see the incredible number of our hurricane sensors on the eastern seaboard. Try dragging towards Washington DC and zoom in!

http://windalert.com/en-us/Search/ViewResults.aspx#28.666,-82.046,7,1

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



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Last edited by windfind on Wed Sep 02, 2015 11:44 am; edited 1 time in total
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wavezz



Joined: 20 Jun 2007
Posts: 32

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2015 12:07 am    Post subject: Maui <?> Nino <?> Reply with quote

So what is this doing to the Maui (a)typical winds over the next month, through to December generally? what do you think, yee weather guru ?

Cool post Mike. Remarkable. satellite imagery is showing the California central valley measurably sinking due to pumping ground water from the drought. The Pacific high seems to be keeping things ongoing warm, dry.

El Nino winter, yea or nay, full on ?

wavezz, John H. (@ 'the Lab')
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 1899

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2015 11:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi JohnH,

As you can see this rainy morning in Hood River mess out in the pacific continues.

It is not possible to even guesscast sailable range Maui winds this far in advance but with the unprecedented pacific heat blob still in place, a history making hurricane swarm acting very weird and a positive PDO ramping up and a major El Nino building the picture for Maui winds this fall and winter is bleak.

Take a look at the video below of the GFS model for the next 6 days. I have set this animation so high pressure zone like the NPH are more reddish and low pressure zones like hurricanes are more blue to purple.

There is something very weird about this model output. Hurricanes thrive over hot tropical waters and die when they come over cold water. That is why you never see hurricanes in the Northern California or Oregon. But watch in this animation as the hurricanes devolve into storms but still continue to march way into the Gulf of Alaska where the unprecedented Pacific Heat Blog is thriving. Clearly a vast amount of uncounted heat has been stored in the pacific in recent years to cause such weird storm trajectories.

Regarding Maui: note how this ring of storms is distorting the shape of the North Pacific High in the animation. And, if this model output plays out, Maui will have weak trade wind for the next week or so.

And with the winter storm track probably further southward this winter the pattern of weaker than normal Maui trade winds is likely to continue.

This pattern also has consequences for Baja's East Cape. Ken and I are slowly working on the Blob Blog that will try to make sense of all this weirdness.

Mike Godsey
iwindsurf.com/ikitesurf.com
Weatheflow.com



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