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no longer be issuing daily meteorologist briefings

 
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drysuit2



Joined: 01 Apr 1997
Posts: 116

PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2014 9:59 pm    Post subject: no longer be issuing daily meteorologist briefings Reply with quote

Note: It's that time of year again; starting on Monday, November 24 we will no longer be issuing daily meteorologist briefings for the East Coast. Hope everyone has a great winter; we'll be back for spring 2015!

Look, I've been a subscriber forever... But this still sucks. It always has.
We sail all year on the east coast. What do we need to do to change this?
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bred2shred



Joined: 02 May 2000
Posts: 966
Location: Jersey Shore

PostPosted: Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:23 am    Post subject: Re: no longer be issuing daily meteorologist briefings Reply with quote

drysuit2 wrote:
What do we need to do to change this?


Send them more money....

sm
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braden



Joined: 12 Jun 1987
Posts: 71
Location: Providence RI

PostPosted: Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There's a colored bar chart labeled "computer forecast" under the graph for your local site. It's not bad. I appreciate the detailed discussion from the meteorologist, it explains uncertainties and helps me understand the weather better. But the bar chart is pretty good. (Wind is usually a little stronger than predicted).
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drysuit2



Joined: 01 Apr 1997
Posts: 116

PostPosted: Sat Nov 22, 2014 2:00 pm    Post subject: Re: no longer be issuing daily meteorologist briefings Reply with quote

bred2shred wrote:
drysuit2 wrote:
What do we need to do to change this?


Send them more money....

sm

I'm certainly willing to do so. How much money would it take? I don't know. Maybe they can market it as a winter membership?

Over the years I have helped them find new locations, new members, and have been willing to pay more for a human interpreted forecast. But even those are less accurate then when they were done by the Wind Hot Line.

You can get good computer models on windfinder and Magic seaweed.
Weatherflow, now markets to Kiters, sailors, fishermen, governments etc..
Look at all their partners... http://www.weatherflow.com/about-us/clients-and-partners/

So they are bigger, better, have a larger more diverse customer base...yet still ignore us East coast windsurfers, who have supported them since the beginning.

Ah I'm probably just grumpy because I haven't sailed in over a week.
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boardsurfr



Joined: 23 Aug 2001
Posts: 1210

PostPosted: Thu Nov 27, 2014 10:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

When we started sailing through the winter a few years ago, I hated that the meteorologist forecasts stopped. But now, I think it was a blessing in disguise. The only remaining option was to look at the computer models and the general weather forecast.

What the meteorologists do is no voodoo - they also look at the computer models, and usually end up picking one or the other, other something in between. Whether or not they pick the right one depends a lot on how much they know about the local conditions. That varies a lot, so the quality of the forecast depends a lot on who is doing the forecast. Quite often, the meteorologist forecast is a lot worse than the better of the computer models. A typical example is a WSW day with an NAM model forecast of 15 mph and a GFS model forecast of 22 mph. Most iWindsurf meteorologists will predict wind close to 15 mph; but on many such days, we'll get 25+ mph at Kalmus.

Nowadays, I always look at the different computer models, and sometimes at the meteorologist forecast - mostly for entertainment, though. Perhaps 1 out of 10 days, the meteorologist predicts something correctly that differs from the models; more often on windy days, the meteorologist on duty under-predict the wind.

The one thing that the meteorologist forecast is usually good for is to predict how many windsurfers will show up on the beach. If the meteorologist forecast is low, but one or more of the computer models are high, few will make the drive to Cape Cod; if the meteorologist forecast is high, we'll see bigger crowds.
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mewindsurf



Joined: 30 Jun 2000
Posts: 170

PostPosted: Thu Nov 27, 2014 11:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

boardseeker is dead on..... Forecasting isn't voodoo or rocket science. You just need to watch models and know how it relates locally.

It seems like they always go with the lowest possible amount of wind to use in the human forecast, instead of the most likely scenario..... People used to yell at them for over-predicting...... making them take off form work for no wind, etc. So now instead of just getting skunked once in a while from an over predicted forecast, we all just never go to the beach in the first place because there's NEVER a windy forecast to begin with...... Either way, honestly, I like when these go offline because then I never second guess my own personal forecast
Smile
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shreddbob



Joined: 31 Mar 1987
Posts: 357
Location: Hawaii

PostPosted: Thu Nov 27, 2014 1:25 pm    Post subject: Re: no longer be issuing daily meteorologist briefings Reply with quote

drysuit2 wrote:

So they are bigger, better, have a larger more diverse customer base...yet still ignore us East coast windsurfers, who have supported them since the beginning.

Ah I'm probably just grumpy because I haven't sailed in over a week.


Well...Yes, I too have been surprised at how many times the forecast underplays the good days. But then I think of all the nice things that come from having the great network of wind sensors. I was happy to support the original Wind Hotline, and I'm just as happy to support iWindsurf. Phil and Matt from the old days are still there. They look out for us still in New England. And Matt's forecasts for us do lay out the possibilities for higher winds on some days and I'm always more interested when I see a forecast done by him. So today on Thanksgiving I'm thankful for those sensors and for iWindsurf! Would not want to have to go back to guess and drive mode Sad
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jkrug



Joined: 30 Apr 2000
Posts: 50

PostPosted: Fri Nov 28, 2014 5:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

person1: 'boy, they really blew the forecast today!'
person2: 'yeah, sucks.'
person1: 'but they're predicting big wind tomorrow, so we got that going for us."
person2: 'yeah, tomorrow's supposed to be awesome."

(tomorrow comes...replay from beginning)
Rolling Eyes

point is: the value of this site lies solely in telling you the current wind conditions (not to downplay how important that is...i've been happily paying for it for years).
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drysuit2



Joined: 01 Apr 1997
Posts: 116

PostPosted: Sat Nov 29, 2014 8:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mewindsurf wrote:
..... Forecasting isn't voodoo or rocket science. You just need to watch models and know how it relates locally.
..... Either way, honestly, I like when these go offline because then I never second guess my own personal forecast
Smile


Yes, as it relates to a local spot, for someone who sails as much as you do...I agree that your forecasts; especially when it comes to LI's South shore are better than what we are paying for.

You have great local knowledge of where we sail. And I often feel like I should be paying you for your on sight reports and forecasts.

We have all had to become to some extent amateur meteorologists.

I just don't have the time I once did, to devote to studying the models. So I am willing to pay "an expert" to do that. Especially in the winter.
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