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steve1
Joined: 30 Apr 1998 Posts: 239 Location: Alameda, CA
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Posted: Mon May 19, 2014 2:33 pm Post subject: Berkeley forecast consistently wrong |
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Why is the forecast for Berkeley so consistently wrong?
I have been sailing from His Lordships on and off for 21 years and its nearly always windier than forecast.
Today its blowing 22-29 yet the forecast is for mid teens
The forecasts for Sat and Sunday were similarly off
Why is Berkeley so hard to model? Is there a conspiracy to keep Windsurfers away LOL? |
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derekd
Joined: 12 Mar 1994 Posts: 73
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Posted: Mon May 19, 2014 2:37 pm Post subject: berkeley |
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From what I understand, and I read this somewhere here, is that Berkeley is one of the hardest places for them to forecast. I believe the presence of the foothills, other geography, lack of "gaps", being the cause. |
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steve1
Joined: 30 Apr 1998 Posts: 239 Location: Alameda, CA
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Posted: Mon May 19, 2014 3:07 pm Post subject: Re: berkeley |
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derekd wrote: | From what I understand, and I read this somewhere here, is that Berkeley is one of the hardest places for them to forecast. I believe the presence of the foothills, other geography, lack of "gaps", being the cause. |
Yes I hear the same thing.
After 20 years or more you'd think they could have compensated or at least figured out that they are consistently under-forecasting the wind at Berkeley.
If you look at today's 11:00am update, the wind speed at Berkeley was already higher than the updated forecast. |
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dllee
Joined: 03 Jul 2009 Posts: 5329 Location: East Bay
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Posted: Mon May 19, 2014 8:21 pm Post subject: |
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Berkeley is just not the IN spot.
5 years ago, there'd be 30 sailors in the water, like today Monday. They even had a forward loop clinic at Cal Sailing Club on Sunday, and none of the participants went out at Berkeley.
Sat., gusts to 33.
Sunday, gusts to 30.
Monday, gusts to 29. Monday, the freestyle crowd showed up. |
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steve1
Joined: 30 Apr 1998 Posts: 239 Location: Alameda, CA
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Posted: Mon May 19, 2014 10:47 pm Post subject: |
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zirtaeb wrote: | Berkeley is just not the IN spot.
5 years ago, there'd be 30 sailors in the water, like today Monday. They even had a forward loop clinic at Cal Sailing Club on Sunday, and none of the participants went out at Berkeley.
Sat., gusts to 33.
Sunday, gusts to 30.
Monday, gusts to 29. Monday, the freestyle crowd showed up. |
Well its not going to be the IN spot if the forecast constantly under estimates the wind.
Frankly I don't care if its IN or OUT or just blah - after 35 years of Windsurfing I am comfortable in my own skin and sail where I want. |
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Sailboarder
Joined: 10 Apr 2011 Posts: 656
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Posted: Tue May 20, 2014 6:07 am Post subject: |
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With some carefull observation, you can probably compensate for the local effects.
Here, lake Champlain is quite popular. If the wind is straight from the south, the forecast is wrong by a factor of two, because of a valley effect. Local forecasters have learned to interpret pressure differentials and forecast the wind themselves, but I find easier and probably as accurate to just apply my correction method. |
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rswabsin
Joined: 14 May 2000 Posts: 444 Location: New Jersey
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Posted: Tue May 20, 2014 7:13 am Post subject: |
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I've learned over the years not to rely on the iwindsurf daily and extended forecasts for wind strengths here on the east coast - I only look at them to get an idea of the forecasted wind direction and general strength and then apply my local knowledge of thermal effects, funneling from hillsides, etc. Our local marine forecasts from the NWS are often more accurate. I used to like the old days of the iwindsurf forecasts when they simply used red, yellow and green flags for the forecast windsurfing conditions - yellow and green I'd plan on sailing and then check a few other on-line sources to supplement the foreast.
Rob |
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xander.arch
Joined: 23 Apr 2009 Posts: 217
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Posted: Wed May 21, 2014 10:50 am Post subject: |
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I think the Iwindsurf team is pretty darn good for spots like 3rd, Crissy, and the Delta. I don't sail Berkeley, but it seems like the iwindsurf forecast for Waddell is also consistently 5knots too low. This is especially the case in May / June. Thankfully NOAA is pretty good for the Santa Cruz coast. I agree with rswabsin in that I prefer a more granular forecast that I can augment with a little local knowledge. |
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RaceboardDude
Joined: 08 Dec 2010 Posts: 86
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Posted: Wed May 21, 2014 11:15 am Post subject: |
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So...now we are complaining that the wind always blows HARDER than the forecast? Sucks. Hate it when that happens. |
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xander.arch
Joined: 23 Apr 2009 Posts: 217
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Posted: Wed May 21, 2014 12:00 pm Post subject: |
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Hahaha. Bunch of spoiled brats we are in the SF Bay Area. |
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