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Berkeley forecast consistently wrong
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steve1



Joined: 30 Apr 1998
Posts: 236
Location: Alameda, CA

PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2014 2:33 pm    Post subject: Berkeley forecast consistently wrong Reply with quote

Why is the forecast for Berkeley so consistently wrong?

I have been sailing from His Lordships on and off for 21 years and its nearly always windier than forecast.

Today its blowing 22-29 yet the forecast is for mid teens
The forecasts for Sat and Sunday were similarly off

Why is Berkeley so hard to model? Is there a conspiracy to keep Windsurfers away LOL?
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derekd



Joined: 12 Mar 1994
Posts: 50

PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2014 2:37 pm    Post subject: berkeley Reply with quote

From what I understand, and I read this somewhere here, is that Berkeley is one of the hardest places for them to forecast. I believe the presence of the foothills, other geography, lack of "gaps", being the cause.
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steve1



Joined: 30 Apr 1998
Posts: 236
Location: Alameda, CA

PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2014 3:07 pm    Post subject: Re: berkeley Reply with quote

derekd wrote:
From what I understand, and I read this somewhere here, is that Berkeley is one of the hardest places for them to forecast. I believe the presence of the foothills, other geography, lack of "gaps", being the cause.


Yes I hear the same thing.

After 20 years or more you'd think they could have compensated or at least figured out that they are consistently under-forecasting the wind at Berkeley.

If you look at today's 11:00am update, the wind speed at Berkeley was already higher than the updated forecast.
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zirtaeb



Joined: 03 Jul 2009
Posts: 2388

PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2014 8:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Berkeley is just not the IN spot.
5 years ago, there'd be 30 sailors in the water, like today Monday. They even had a forward loop clinic at Cal Sailing Club on Sunday, and none of the participants went out at Berkeley.
Sat., gusts to 33.
Sunday, gusts to 30.
Monday, gusts to 29. Monday, the freestyle crowd showed up.
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steve1



Joined: 30 Apr 1998
Posts: 236
Location: Alameda, CA

PostPosted: Mon May 19, 2014 10:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

zirtaeb wrote:
Berkeley is just not the IN spot.
5 years ago, there'd be 30 sailors in the water, like today Monday. They even had a forward loop clinic at Cal Sailing Club on Sunday, and none of the participants went out at Berkeley.
Sat., gusts to 33.
Sunday, gusts to 30.
Monday, gusts to 29. Monday, the freestyle crowd showed up.


Well its not going to be the IN spot if the forecast constantly under estimates the wind.

Frankly I don't care if its IN or OUT or just blah - after 35 years of Windsurfing I am comfortable in my own skin and sail where I want.
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Sailboarder



Joined: 10 Apr 2011
Posts: 439

PostPosted: Tue May 20, 2014 6:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

With some carefull observation, you can probably compensate for the local effects.

Here, lake Champlain is quite popular. If the wind is straight from the south, the forecast is wrong by a factor of two, because of a valley effect. Local forecasters have learned to interpret pressure differentials and forecast the wind themselves, but I find easier and probably as accurate to just apply my correction method.
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rswabsin



Joined: 14 May 2000
Posts: 218
Location: New Jersey

PostPosted: Tue May 20, 2014 7:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've learned over the years not to rely on the iwindsurf daily and extended forecasts for wind strengths here on the east coast - I only look at them to get an idea of the forecasted wind direction and general strength and then apply my local knowledge of thermal effects, funneling from hillsides, etc. Our local marine forecasts from the NWS are often more accurate. I used to like the old days of the iwindsurf forecasts when they simply used red, yellow and green flags for the forecast windsurfing conditions - yellow and green I'd plan on sailing and then check a few other on-line sources to supplement the foreast.

Rob
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xander.arch



Joined: 23 Apr 2009
Posts: 189

PostPosted: Wed May 21, 2014 10:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the Iwindsurf team is pretty darn good for spots like 3rd, Crissy, and the Delta. I don't sail Berkeley, but it seems like the iwindsurf forecast for Waddell is also consistently 5knots too low. This is especially the case in May / June. Thankfully NOAA is pretty good for the Santa Cruz coast. I agree with rswabsin in that I prefer a more granular forecast that I can augment with a little local knowledge.
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RaceboardDude



Joined: 08 Dec 2010
Posts: 59

PostPosted: Wed May 21, 2014 11:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So...now we are complaining that the wind always blows HARDER than the forecast? Sucks. Hate it when that happens.
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xander.arch



Joined: 23 Apr 2009
Posts: 189

PostPosted: Wed May 21, 2014 12:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hahaha. Bunch of spoiled brats we are in the SF Bay Area.
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