View previous topic :: View next topic |
Author |
Message |
GURGLETROUSERS
Joined: 30 Dec 2009 Posts: 2643
|
Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 5:04 am Post subject: |
|
|
For what it's worth.
There are problems with the warming consensus, as all are aware.Predictions have had to be downgraded as reality has resolutely refused to follow computer models, especially with regard to accepted wisdom concerning atmospheric CO2 and temperatures.
We are aware that modelling is constantly improving, and new ways have been found to explain the 'pause.' (Their words and admissions -East Anglia/ Met office/ IPCC - critism directed at them please.) Even if the missing heat is going into the deep oceans (the oceans as a heat sink- who'd have thought of that!) there is still amissing piece to the jig-saw.
(Usual computer problem - will continue.) |
|
Back to top |
|
|
GURGLETROUSERS
Joined: 30 Dec 2009 Posts: 2643
|
Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 5:20 am Post subject: |
|
|
The Eureka moment for me (if not for anybody else) came with the Russian bombshell announcement. I was in the car after changing from a bike ride, stuffing egg sandwiches, and with a giant flask of tea while catching up on the Sunday papers balamced across the steering wheel when I froze, literally bellowed WOW, (and hastily wiped off globs of tea I'd splattered over the print, before it made it unreadable. We weren't going to fry after all!!
To me, it was one of thosedefining statenents that immediately strike a chord. At a stroke, it explained the problems warmers were having making the facts fit their apparently failing predictions. The sun was in for maintainance (sorry guv, can't give precise estimate -Curry 30 years/ Russians 200 years- depends what needs fixing ) and it was going to become cooler.
To repeat, that is not to deny that warming forces have ceased, but that they will be overridden by stronger cooling forces. What more can be added? If they are correct, it will cool. If they are wrong it heat. We will know in 10 or so years time.
One final thing; if the deep oceans have warmed at a vastly accelerated rate over the last 20 years or so, why should they then need thousands of years to dissipate that heat, and cool again? My cups of tea don't obey any such rule if I forget to drink them in time! |
|
Back to top |
|
|
GURGLETROUSERS
Joined: 30 Dec 2009 Posts: 2643
|
Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 5:26 am Post subject: |
|
|
Sorry for typos and hurried composition. Computer internet connection keeps playing up. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
keycocker
Joined: 10 Jul 2005 Posts: 3598
|
Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 11:28 am Post subject: |
|
|
I thought through your analogy about tea.
I can heat my tea water pot from room temp to boiling in less than a minute. The pot will go back completely to room temp in about 20 to 30 mins.
My solar will heat water to bath temp in about two hours.
The water in the tank will return to room temp in about three days.
Heat flow is not so simple in giant complex systems..
In my solar the water in the collectors is like the surface of the ocean. The water in them cools down in a hour after sun goes down.
The water in the tank is like the depths of the ocean. It cools much more slowly. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999 Posts: 17744 Location: Berkeley, California
|
Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 1:33 pm Post subject: |
|
|
GT--can you provide a link to a peer reviewed study that supports your viewpoint/interpretation of the Curry and Russian theories? For Curry all I've seen is a commentary piece on ocean warming, not in detail and clearly not a peer reviewed study. For the Russian theory, my understanding is that the work, and the publication of the data is still in progress.
That is not to say that the so-called grey literature is not of great value in moving our understanding forward and providing meaningful skepticism. But peer review is the crucible of actual scientific understanding, and vehemently resisted by the denial industry. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
GURGLETROUSERS
Joined: 30 Dec 2009 Posts: 2643
|
Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 2:15 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Sorry mac, but I no longer have the article from which I quoted that Curry, and her associate, had STATED to have had her latest research peer reviewed, and by implication, that of the Russians too.
It was a write up in one of the more serious papers, so may possibly have been a little 'jumping the gun.' The Russians have remained silent, as is their culture, but they certainly haven't retracted or modified their claim, as would have been likely had it been provably wrong.
I agree that it is not proof, and Curry is certainly outspoken, but I think she retains sufficient credibility to be taken very seriously.
I hope so! |
|
Back to top |
|
|
pointster
Joined: 22 Jul 2010 Posts: 376
|
|
Back to top |
|
|
keycocker
Joined: 10 Jul 2005 Posts: 3598
|
Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 4:00 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Thanks poinster.
Reading in that site a technical discussion of the subject among scientists with different conclusions based solely on data not politics is quite refreshing. |
|
Back to top |
|
|
GURGLETROUSERS
Joined: 30 Dec 2009 Posts: 2643
|
Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 4:35 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Thank you Pointster.
There appears to be a big argument about the degree of warming over 'the rapid warming' period, over and above that which may or may not be attributed to solar output. (The CO2 problem.)
But, unless I'm misreading things, Curry and the Russians in particular are basing their predictions on a longer term, more intense??? cooling solar cycle, the like of which was last seen in the mini-ice age.This must surely have an overall cooling effect, regardless of other factors, on the overall global climate, especially if it lasts for up to 200 years?
As a non-scientist am I miss reading something here, and over simplifying what is being claimed? Surely, Curry and the Russians are aware of all the other factors involved? |
|
Back to top |
|
|
pointster
Joined: 22 Jul 2010 Posts: 376
|
|
Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum You cannot attach files in this forum You cannot download files in this forum
|
|
|