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Global cooling
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GURGLETROUSERS



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 1331

PostPosted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 5:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

For what it's worth.

There are problems with the warming consensus, as all are aware.Predictions have had to be downgraded as reality has resolutely refused to follow computer models, especially with regard to accepted wisdom concerning atmospheric CO2 and temperatures.

We are aware that modelling is constantly improving, and new ways have been found to explain the 'pause.' (Their words and admissions -East Anglia/ Met office/ IPCC - critism directed at them please.) Even if the missing heat is going into the deep oceans (the oceans as a heat sink- who'd have thought of that!) there is still amissing piece to the jig-saw.

(Usual computer problem - will continue.)
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GURGLETROUSERS



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 1331

PostPosted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 5:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Eureka moment for me (if not for anybody else) came with the Russian bombshell announcement. I was in the car after changing from a bike ride, stuffing egg sandwiches, and with a giant flask of tea while catching up on the Sunday papers balamced across the steering wheel when I froze, literally bellowed WOW, (and hastily wiped off globs of tea I'd splattered over the print, before it made it unreadable. We weren't going to fry after all!!

To me, it was one of thosedefining statenents that immediately strike a chord. At a stroke, it explained the problems warmers were having making the facts fit their apparently failing predictions. The sun was in for maintainance (sorry guv, can't give precise estimate -Curry 30 years/ Russians 200 years- depends what needs fixing Wink ) and it was going to become cooler.

To repeat, that is not to deny that warming forces have ceased, but that they will be overridden by stronger cooling forces. What more can be added? If they are correct, it will cool. If they are wrong it heat. We will know in 10 or so years time.

One final thing; if the deep oceans have warmed at a vastly accelerated rate over the last 20 years or so, why should they then need thousands of years to dissipate that heat, and cool again? My cups of tea don't obey any such rule if I forget to drink them in time!
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GURGLETROUSERS



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 1331

PostPosted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 5:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sorry for typos and hurried composition. Computer internet connection keeps playing up.
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keycocker



Joined: 10 Jul 2005
Posts: 3325

PostPosted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 11:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I thought through your analogy about tea.
I can heat my tea water pot from room temp to boiling in less than a minute. The pot will go back completely to room temp in about 20 to 30 mins.

My solar will heat water to bath temp in about two hours.
The water in the tank will return to room temp in about three days.

Heat flow is not so simple in giant complex systems..
In my solar the water in the collectors is like the surface of the ocean. The water in them cools down in a hour after sun goes down.
The water in the tank is like the depths of the ocean. It cools much more slowly.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 5122

PostPosted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GT--can you provide a link to a peer reviewed study that supports your viewpoint/interpretation of the Curry and Russian theories? For Curry all I've seen is a commentary piece on ocean warming, not in detail and clearly not a peer reviewed study. For the Russian theory, my understanding is that the work, and the publication of the data is still in progress.

That is not to say that the so-called grey literature is not of great value in moving our understanding forward and providing meaningful skepticism. But peer review is the crucible of actual scientific understanding, and vehemently resisted by the denial industry.
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GURGLETROUSERS



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 1331

PostPosted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 2:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sorry mac, but I no longer have the article from which I quoted that Curry, and her associate, had STATED to have had her latest research peer reviewed, and by implication, that of the Russians too.

It was a write up in one of the more serious papers, so may possibly have been a little 'jumping the gun.' The Russians have remained silent, as is their culture, but they certainly haven't retracted or modified their claim, as would have been likely had it been provably wrong.

I agree that it is not proof, and Curry is certainly outspoken, but I think she retains sufficient credibility to be taken very seriously.

I hope so!
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pointster



Joined: 22 Jul 2010
Posts: 211

PostPosted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GT, the problem with the Russian hypothesis is that for the last third of the 20th century, Total Solar Irradiance and golobal teemperature were going in the opposite directions: temperatures were going up, while TSI was declining.

You may want to check out this link:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming-basic.htm
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keycocker



Joined: 10 Jul 2005
Posts: 3325

PostPosted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 4:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks poinster.
Reading in that site a technical discussion of the subject among scientists with different conclusions based solely on data not politics is quite refreshing.
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GURGLETROUSERS



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Posts: 1331

PostPosted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 4:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thank you Pointster.

There appears to be a big argument about the degree of warming over 'the rapid warming' period, over and above that which may or may not be attributed to solar output. (The CO2 problem.)

But, unless I'm misreading things, Curry and the Russians in particular are basing their predictions on a longer term, more intense??? cooling solar cycle, the like of which was last seen in the mini-ice age.This must surely have an overall cooling effect, regardless of other factors, on the overall global climate, especially if it lasts for up to 200 years?

As a non-scientist am I miss reading something here, and over simplifying what is being claimed? Surely, Curry and the Russians are aware of all the other factors involved?
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pointster



Joined: 22 Jul 2010
Posts: 211

PostPosted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 4:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GT, the mini-ice age corresponded to the "Maunder Minimum" of solar activity. Putting Maunder Minimum solar output into 21st century climate models yields at best a .3 Deg C decrease of the projected warming of around 4.5 Deg C. Not insignificant, but it won't save the day. For a discussion on this area, on the same website:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/What-would-happen-if-the-sun-fell-to-Maunder-Minimum-levels.html
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