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Will the Republican Party survive the Tea Party?
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 5253

PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:46 am    Post subject: Will the Republican Party survive the Tea Party? Reply with quote

From John Diaz, who is politically pretty middle of the road, in yesterday's Chronicle:


Quote:
If Republicans in Washington have any doubt about the perils of the politics of obstruction, they should look to California for a cautionary tale.

For years, outnumbered Republicans in the California Legislature held the nation's most populous state hostage to their demands, usually out of their determination to block any and all tax increases but sometimes out of a motive to simply embarrass a weakened Democratic governor.

As a short-term strategy, it proved mightily effective in frustrating Democratic tax-and-spend plans. In the long term, it contributed to the current irrelevance of a party that not so long ago all but owned the Golden State.

Today, the Democrats hold two-thirds majorities in both the Senate and Assembly, both U.S. Senate seats and all eight statewide offices. It's not only inconceivable that Gov. Jerry Brown or any Democratic statewide incumbent could be seriously challenged next year, it seems very likely that under the open primary (a reform widely supported by Republicans), two or three of those races could end up with two Democrats in the general-election finals.

The Republican recalcitrance and no-tax pledges that led to long budget delays and the resulting threats of IOUs and worker furloughs throughout the 2000s was hardly the only cause of the party's predicament. But the stalemates clearly contributed to a voter frustration that led to reforms - independent redistricting, top-two primary, reduction of the threshold for budget passage from two-thirds to simple majority - and a drift toward one-party rule. Those reforms included a provision that state legislators' paychecks stop when they miss the deadline to approve a budget.

Republicans in Washington should take note: The anger they stoke can and will be used against them.

"It's a fascinating parallel, and I don't think I've seen anyone else make it. ... It's really interesting to think about it," said Dan Schnur, a longtime GOP strategist who now serves as director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California.

Schnur said most voters probably concurred with the California Republicans' aversion to higher taxes, just as polls show a public skepticism about Obamacare.

Still, he said, "Voters may agree with you on the issue, but they still don't want you to burn the house down."

Garry South, a top adviser to Gov. Gray Davis, said the 62-day budget delay of 2002 played to the advantage of an incumbent whose poll numbers otherwise spelled vulnerability. The Republican obstinacy helped the Davis campaign "turn it into a D versus R race," South said.

"There were Republicans who were talking about not passing a budget until after the November election to try to screw Davis," he said. "What happened at the end was the Democrats captured all (statewide) constitutional offices for the first time since 1882."

Bill Whalen, a research fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, questioned whether those stalemates hurt the GOP.

"I'm not going to buy into it for a simple reason: I think you're seriously overestimating how much attention people pay to Sacramento," said Whalen, who well remembers the challenge of getting television coverage when he worked for Gov. Pete Wilson.

"You say, 'OK, the Republicans for years were obstructionists on the budget' - that's true - but the Republican Party's problem in California deals with far bigger problems than being obstructionists," Whalen added. "It's two issues: the disconnect with Hispanics and the disconnect with women."

Rob Stutzman, a prominent Republican strategist, said, "I guess I see some similarities and parallels" between today's tactics in Washington and the budget roadblocks that defined the Sacramento budget process until the Democrats took full control.


Perhaps the most striking parallel, said Stutzman, is the absence of an achievable GOP objective, which is absolutely true in Washington now and was often apparent in the Sacramento fray. He's right. Neither Obama nor Senate Democrats are about to repeal or delay Obamacare. The other Republican fantasies - linking the ability of the government to pay its bills to the Keystone XL pipeline, expanded offshore drilling or a ban on late-term abortions - have been abandoned.

"It's just not clear what we're after here," Stutzman said.

In other words, the Republicans have set themselves for a loss of face on a national scale comparable to the one they suffered in California. And the Tea Party zealots may not even care.

"These dozen House rebels know that there is no way they will lose a general election campaign to a member of the other party," Schnur said. "The only way they can ever lose their job is to a more conservative Republican in a primary. So while their position is based on ideology, it's also based on self-preservation."

There may be another indirect cost to this Washington madness. Remember, almost any objective analysis of either party concludes that the GOP's future prospects are tied to its ability to attract Latino voters. Democrat South noted that polls show strong Latino support for Obamacare: Thus the effort to shut down the government to stop it is politically suicidal.

Beyond that, the Capitol calories being consumed and vitriol being raised on the shutdown - and, soon, the debt limit - surely will reduce the chances of immigration reform before the next election.

"If immigration reform gets blocked because of this," Whalen predicted, "Democrats will do a very good job of blaming it on Republicans."

Congressional Republicans who think they can spin this all in their favor should consider just one word: California.


The nonsense that the Tea's are up to will kill any prospect for moderate immigration reform that might help the Republicans with their toxic image. That will be blamed on the Re-thugs, and their efforts to suppress voting by minorities will mostly lose in court. Lemmings wearing suicide vests did someone say? Do they have a future?
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nw30



Joined: 21 Dec 2008
Posts: 1720
Location: The eye of the universe, Cen. Cal. coast

PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think turning the question around would be more accurate.

Will the TEA party survive the Republican Party?

_________________
I don't drink the 'cool' aid, I drink tequila, it's more honest.
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If the Tea Party was a real party , they would form a third party. The party is simply a bunch of rookie politicians within the Republican party.
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keycocker



Joined: 10 Jul 2005
Posts: 3386

PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 12:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Teas started as a real Third Party ,proud that they attracted liberals as well.
They were bought by lobbyist money arranged by the GOP.
Now that money is going toward buying the Dems. There was a big drop in corporate money to the Republican Party in the last election.
Business people are much less driven by ideology. They want the pols they pay to come through with favorable legislation.
The GOP doesn't do that much these days.
The Better biz Bureau, Chamber of Commerce, and other formerly GOP allies have been meeting with Obama because they have common cause with the Dems to end the shutdown.
It is costing the American people only a 100 million a day in taxes.
Private business losses are much higher.
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swchandler



Joined: 08 Nov 1993
Posts: 5830

PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 1:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Business people are much less driven by ideology. They want the pols they pay to come through with favorable legislation."


You've brought up a good point keycocker, but I have to wonder about the direction being favored by business. In the past Republicans have promoted less regulation as a panacea for business at the expense of a less clean and safe environment. I hoping that business interests begin to see the possibilities in protecting our environment by promoting technical innovation and real growth in concert with sound regulations. As obvious examples, I can imagine that state of the art oil refining and energy production (fossil fuels, coal and nuclear) would improve our infrastructure while providing a wealth of excellent high paying jobs. I think that we need newer high level regulations and standards if we proceed with the Keystone XL pipeline. Let's give the oil industry an opportunity, but only in exchange for a state of the art transport, processing and refinement.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 5253

PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No comment necessary:

Quote:
A new PPP poll looked at 24 House districts held by Republicans, and since the government shutdown 21 of them now have generic Democratic candidates leading.

PPP found that, “The surveys, commissioned and paid for by MoveOn.org Political Action, show Republican incumbents behind among registered voters in head-to-head contests with generic Democratic challengers in 17 districts. In four other districts, the incumbent Republican falls behind a generic Democratic candidate after respondents are told that the Republican incumbent supported the government shutdown. In only three districts do Republican incumbents best generic Democratic challengers after voters are told the incumbent supported the government shutdown.”

The districts, with the exception of one, all had something in common. They were seats held by Republicans in states that were won by President Obama in 2012. This poll strikes right at the heart of the conventional wisdom that gerrymandering will keep House Republicans safe no matter what they do.


To NW, who doesn't pay any attention to media from the reality side of the universe, and says:

Quote:
Will the TEA party survive the Republican Party?


The sooner the Tea Party moves to the ash heap of history, where they belong, with such noted failed movements as the "Know Nothings" and the "Copperheads", the better. For everyone.
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pointster



Joined: 22 Jul 2010
Posts: 223

PostPosted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 11:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's an interesting report of a focus group on current attitudes of Republicans:

http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/954/dcor%20rpp%20fg%20memo%20100313%20final.pdf
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stevenbard



Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 4152

PostPosted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If the Republicans fail and are marginalized we will end up with a Venezuelan, Mexican, Cuban, Russian, Socialist Oligarchy. Hopefully the liberals will enjoy their new bosses. Same as the old boss, just meaner.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very interesting. Those tin hats keep facts and aliens away.

More seriously, two things seem clear. First, for the Teas and Evangelicals, this is about fear, and we know that fear obscures your ability to perceive reality. Second, it seems clear that the moderates are in play socially and electorally if the Teas and Evangelicals get the upper hand in messaging. Which they have on both immigration and health care.
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good post Pointster. Here's a great quote from Bill O. music to my ears.
.."The Republican Party finds itself in trouble -- big trouble. Obamacare is not going to be defunded, and the GOP will have to make a deal with the president. And you know who's most happy about this? Hillary Clinton, that's who. Hard-right Americans should understand that Democrats will win next year's midterm elections and the presidency of 2016 if the Republican party does not begin to solve problems."

-- Bill O'Reilly
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