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Arlington 4/13/13
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30knotwind



Joined: 30 Aug 2005
Posts: 152
Location: White Salmon, WA

PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2013 11:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Really great shots! Maybe Thur-Sat this week will be another round, but warmer: 67F, 30+ mph, mostly sunny--sounds like summer is getting closer!

Table:
http://www.30knotwind.com/p/gorge-noaa-week.html
Map:
http://www.30knotwind.com/p/wind-map-oregon.html



4-16-2013 9-19-51 PM.png
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4-16-2013 9-19-51 PM.png



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gronquist



Joined: 12 May 2000
Posts: 33

PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 10:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

brettn wrote:
Who is that skying the forward loop?

Just a hunch but that may be the dude who goes by the alias, 'The Tiger'. When he feels that inner tiger within, he lets out a giant roar!

..that might be him because that same dude was bragging to me about nailing a couple of forwards on his opening spring day.
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 14050

PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 1:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

30knotwind wrote:
Maybe Thur-Sat this week will be another round, but warmer: 67F, 30+ mph, mostly sunny--sounds like summer is getting closer!

You've done an incredible amount of great work in assembling this site, but please don't start pegging our wind like the Corpus Christi fans do ... calling a day whose biggest gust of 31 mph makes it a "31 mph day". It does a disservice to folks who must drive for an hour or four only to realize they need their big race or slalom gear to sail.

From your site, for example:
Roosevelt Thur 22 mph gusting to 31, Fri 21G31, Sat 22G31.

That's three days averaging 21 or 22 ... just BARELY enough to get planing ... sometimes ... on a 6.2 and a big board with a big fin.

Then there's that WNW kiss of death Friday at the Wall .... IF it materializes. Ya gotta look closely and realize that subtle directional changes make or break many sites.

If folks want to just drive and hope for wind and take whatever they get because it's spring, great. But those who have jobs or need to mow the lawn might be better served by cold, hard, accurate presentation of the bare forecasts. That at least lets them make informed choices. I love it when I drive for an expected 21 just because I have a new 6.2 I wanna try in marginal conditions and instead get 32G33 all day, but the flip side is driving for 30 and getting an unsailable 19. Once again, forecasts are fine for getting prepared, but there's nothing like sustained wind on the sensor to make me actually start the engine. On vacation, every hour is important. On work days, and at $4/gallon, however, reality is important even for locals.

On the bright side, some forecasts for squally, rainy crap out east lately have not materialized; the squalls stopped much farther west some days. That's where the radar images come in handy. Heck, they make or break many frontal AND thermal days.
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30knotwind



Joined: 30 Aug 2005
Posts: 152
Location: White Salmon, WA

PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 4:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for your thoughts Iso, all feedback is appreciated.

BTW, if you want to do a daily forecast/discussion on my site let me know and I'll set you up--it's as easy as writing a daily email--I know you've got the time, energy and opinion, all the maps and tables are there, just write what you think.

I tried to qualify my comment using 'maybe Thu-Fri' etc--three days out is never a sure bet.

I've been obsessing over the tools on my pages for years and the forecast does look good for a 4.2 or better day around Arlington, which is upper 20s avg--with the chance of 30+ avg. In my experience the NOAA "average" tends to be low with the gust closer to the average at windsurfing launches; Intellicast.com for The Dalles says ~22 for Thu/Fri/Sat--it does not often get into the 20s--which translates to 30+ at eastern wind launches.

I was once a Spokane sailor and any advance notice of a chance to sail around the weekend was very helpful for organizing and setting expectations for Family events/chores.
Cheers!

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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 14050

PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 5:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

30knotwind wrote:
BTW, if you want to do a daily forecast/discussion on my site let me know and I'll set you up--it's as easy as writing a daily email--I know you've got the time, energy and opinion, all the maps and tables are there, just write what you think.

I get asked for my forecasts many times every summer day. I'm neither qualified for nor interested in making them, for myself or for anyone else, for the simple reason that even the pros and with their banks of Crays can't do it very well in this topographical nightmare we live in. I drive, rig and sail in pure reaction mode; when it blows I goes. I use forecasts only as hints for whether I should watch the current wind speeds closely, and I drive before it hits 20 mph only when parking is a major problem.

I agree that NOAA often underestimates the wind forecasts. I walked into the heart of a NOAA forecast center and asked them about that, and agreed 100% with their answer: "Because every time we get tempted to tweak the models to reflect that, the next forecast swings the other way." That was >20 years ago, and I still agree.

I hope you're right about the next few days, but I never fully believe any given day's wind forecast until the sun sets that evening. I've seen some Hood River forecast sources dramatically miss even THAT.

As for other commitments between April 1 and Thanksgiving, I stopped making them in 1988. No kidding.

Mike \m/
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 14050

PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 6:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

30knotwind wrote:
I've been obsessing over the tools on my pages for years and the forecast does look good for a 4.2 or better day around Arlington, which is upper 20s avg--with the chance of 30+ avg.

Your impressive website reflects that obsession, and Fri and Sat look windier with each forecast update.

Btw ... river water temps are dropping, as usually happens with snowmelt. Take yer booties, folks.
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biffmalibu



Joined: 30 May 2008
Posts: 186

PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 6:43 pm    Post subject: GNARLINGTON! Reply with quote

GNARLINGTON!

Most excellent photos showing how big and smooth the swells were! That is well-worth the drive! Thank you for sharing!
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30knotwind



Joined: 30 Aug 2005
Posts: 152
Location: White Salmon, WA

PostPosted: Wed Apr 17, 2013 8:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

River data:
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/wa/nwis/dv?cb_00065=on&cb_00060=on&cb_00010=on&cb_72147=on&format=gif_stats&site_no=14105700&referred_module=sw

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youwindsurf



Joined: 18 Aug 2012
Posts: 546
Location: North Shore High School

PostPosted: Thu Apr 18, 2013 11:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

30knotwind wrote:
Thanks for your thoughts Iso, all feedback is appreciated.


If you really want feedback, critique your own forecast after the fact for accuracy and post it. Keep track of your stats and post them. If your accuracy is above 50% then you are on to something. Otherwise, it is just more noise.
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