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Tomales computer generated forecast?

 
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poussin



Joined: 14 Sep 2000
Posts: 158

PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 10:54 am    Post subject: Tomales computer generated forecast? Reply with quote

I noticed the computer generated forecast is looking a bit promising
for a few sites this week. But not sure how good these forecasts really are.

For Tomales for example, it shows mid to high teens this week with gusts
into the low 20's. Is that good enough to go out in if you don't sail formula gear or even big slalom?

Just don't want to miss out and obviously also don't want to
cut out of work, and make the drive for 15-18 mph winds.

Please advise.
Thanks.

Greg
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jse



Joined: 17 Apr 1995
Posts: 1298
Location: Marin

PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 8:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey Poussin, See my note in this thread re: Tomales prediction:

http://www.iwindsurf.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=25916

It doesn't look good at this time. However when I see Yellow or better on any day that's more than 1 or 2 days in the future, I watch it as the day approaches. If it's going to be windy the computer model will generally predict it, as NW'erlies are more predictable than SW'erlies with the lone exception of storm winds. So if it's Monday and you see yellow or orange on Friday, as you get closer to Friday, the color will get more promising if the wind will blow, i.e., yellow to orange or orange to red.

Where do you live? My rule of thumb is 18 by 10 (18 mph by 10 AM) is as good as a sure thing as you'll get. Keep in mind that this is classic spring conditions, not some flukey storm system. Classic means howling winds, blue sky, not a cloud in sight. Gives you plenty of time to get there before the 3.5 conditions set in.

Steve
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poussin



Joined: 14 Sep 2000
Posts: 158

PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 1:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for the info Steve.
I'm in Mill Valley, so it's about 50 minutes or so to get there.
I'll keep an eye on the forcast as you mentioned.
Hope to see you there this week!

Greg Very Happy
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victor



Joined: 03 Aug 1998
Posts: 551

PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 11:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

on the way if you see whitecaps on nicasio reservoir you know you're in for a good session.

...or you can call steve. he's probabaly already there.
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jse



Joined: 17 Apr 1995
Posts: 1298
Location: Marin

PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 4:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

50 Minutes, that's pretty fast. Takes me 40 from Fairfax. 35 if I drive real fast. And victor is right, look for stripes on Nicasio Reservoir. That's the best indicator that there will be wind, although I've had great wind at Tomales without the Nicasio reservoir indicators. The other thing is that there is a Verizon cell signal at Nicasio reservoir so you can check the website on your smart phone there.

Steve
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jse



Joined: 17 Apr 1995
Posts: 1298
Location: Marin

PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2013 11:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey Poussin, Looking good next week:

http://www.iwindsurf.com/windandwhere.iws?regionID=163&siteID=220&Isection=Forecast+Graphs

Steve
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poussin



Joined: 14 Sep 2000
Posts: 158

PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey Steve,

Thanks for the heads up!
I'll be there!

Cheers,

Greg
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