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Insane Storm! El Nino is here.
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keycocker



Joined: 10 Jul 2005
Posts: 3598

PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2013 5:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The I windsurf forecasts for Maui give me pause.
At least it won't be crowded out there.
Momma told me not to come.That ain't no way to have fun, son.
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MalibuGuru



Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 9293

PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2013 11:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Keycocker, let me know what it looks like out there. I may come back over on Saturday when the surf dies a little. 30 foot close out at lowers is just as scary as any place that big.

Wondering if there will be any channel? Photos please.
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windoggi



Joined: 22 Feb 2002
Posts: 2743

PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2013 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kevinkan wrote:
when is that shit supposed to hit the West Coast? I'll camp out at Ashby Shoal for some epic waist high waves Very Happy
See you out there! Does it really get rideable? Low tide I assume.
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jp5



Joined: 19 May 1998
Posts: 3394
Location: OnUr6

PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2013 12:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odF_hxTxNTk
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windoggi



Joined: 22 Feb 2002
Posts: 2743

PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2013 1:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

medium tide.
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dllee



Joined: 03 Jul 2009
Posts: 5328
Location: East Bay

PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2013 1:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like E winds are still here, so it might be ON.
Medium low, maybe a 1.5 is best, so swell get's in, but it's shallow enough to make for more than just rolling swells.
Bring your windsurf board or SUP, as it's gonna be just over knee high.
They've been dredging there lately thous, so watch out for muddy waters....
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dllee



Joined: 03 Jul 2009
Posts: 5328
Location: East Bay

PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2013 2:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One possible roadblock....
It's still strong E winds.
E winds seem to knock down bigger swells from reaching across water.
Notice most big days have side winds or following winds.
This one is opposing winds.
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LHDR



Joined: 22 Jun 2007
Posts: 528

PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2013 8:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is there a good book or other resource that would allow me to understand sentences like these?

"ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS REAL GOOD AS CALIFORNIA SITS UNDER THE RIDGE PORTION OF LARGE OMEGA BLOCK. "
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carl



Joined: 25 Feb 1997
Posts: 2674
Location: SF bay area

PostPosted: Fri Jan 18, 2013 10:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Look at the greek symbol omega. It looks like an upsidedown "U".
Now look at a current satilite photo of the western pacific and Calif.
The storm track and jet stream is diverted up into a large omega
shape. north of Calif. The high pressure in the middle of the omega blocks all storms and sends them up and over Calif, yielding nice weather (but unfortunatly for us, windless).
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kevinkan



Joined: 07 Jun 2001
Posts: 1661
Location: San Francisco

PostPosted: Sat Jan 19, 2013 12:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

windoggie wrote:
kevinkan wrote:
when is that shit supposed to hit the West Coast? I'll camp out at Ashby Shoal for some epic waist high waves Very Happy
See you out there! Does it really get rideable? Low tide I assume.


yep, low tide... the shoal in the video is probably on an extreme negative tide... I think we have about a +1.5 or something which should be fine

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