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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
Posts: 3704
Location: at a computer

PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 3:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stevenbard wrote:
boggsman1 wrote:
No, its a head fake, we get them a couple times a year. You dont want to be short bonds when the FED is buying $85B of product a MONTH!


Someday it won't be. Then the gates of Hell will open.... Laughing

I agree. Most investors wont know what hit them when their bond portfolios get cut in half, and their HELOC payments triple. Its gonna suck.
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isobars



Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 14486

PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2012 6:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stevenbard wrote:
No shit, I tried to warn Iso.

What warning was that? And how does it compare to literally thousands of pages of economics analysis Iíve studied over the past year or two from economists and billionaires (No, not Beck, for Godís sake; think Rogers, Fisher, Schiff, the Wiedemers, Soros, for example, plus major nations) with track records FAR superior to those of any administration, Wall Street, or the WSJ?

(The WSJ lambasted Schiff back in 2009, for example, when his specifically long-term global forecasts didnít work for the following year Ö DUH Ö yet admitted in a subsequent article that heís a long-term macroeconomics wizard. That was a classic example of the typical investment adviserís myopic focus on the next six months -- to sell product and keep his job -- rather than on the next several years or more most smart investors care about.)

Schiff has always emphasized the long term. I emphasize my long term. Every pro-gold guru emphasizes the long term. Who besides daytraders and hobbyists want to be a slave to their stock ticker and actually believe they can outsmart 100,000 competitors ranging from pueno to Buffett? I much prefer windsurfing and writing. Hell, Iíd rather mow the lawn -- literally -- than play the short term market. I expect, because most of these sources expect, the market to do fairly well next year, and maybe the next Ö right up to the minute it pukes for the scores of reasons these books explain. Iíd rather bail a year too soon than one computer-generated market freeze too late.

I notice that gold is going down lately, and that the media are playing its funeral dirge. GREAT; I call that a buying opportunity for the long haul. I dumped much of my equities when the Dow was near 14 and put some of that into gold. I wish to hell I had put more into metals then, as these same sources were advising; my gold holdings have doubled in value, and the case for their doubling again Ö and maybe again within my limited lifetime, as the dollarís value drops comparably, is strong, is very clearly presented, and has historical precedence in MUCH worse economic environments for gold. Then in a decade or two the gold bubble explodes and is replaced via irrational exuberance by yet more bubbles.

stevenbard wrote:
I locked a large loan at 3.6% last week, and will be leveraging up as much as I can. This easy money will not last forever.

The bubble books give it 1 to 4 years, and say youíll be paying off the rest of your mortgage in Bernanke money Ö i.e. peanuts Ö which is his stated goal for paying off our national debt. Destroying the dollar to pay off unmanageable debt in fiat (aka counterfeit) money has been the policy of many nations throughout history, and it works Ö right up until the artificially QE-levitated economy collapses and the price of a loaf of bread or a Chevy starts doubling every day as it does in Zimbabwe. If I were completely convinced of that, Iíd be taking out a 3.5% mortgage on my home, putting it into gold and silver, and paying off that 30 year fixed rate mortgage in useless thousand-dollar bills. Itís very tempting, but a guaranteed roof over my head is really handy.

stevenbard wrote:
If we have an economic collapse, people will be selling their gold fillings for bread.

That's the whole point; would you rather spend $40 of play money, or 0.0001 of an ounce of gold for that loaf of bread? Gold has kept up with inflation for decades, and if the many gold buyers and gurus are right, it could even keep up its 12-years-and-running infinite superiority over the stock market since 2000 for another decade or two. Market: down. Gold: up 500%.

Drop, gold. Please. My checkbook is poised and ready, and my Fidelity adviser concurs. Ludwig von Mises, classic liberal and renowned economist said something like ďGovernment is the only agency that can take a valuable commodity like paper and, merely by putting ink on it, render it worthless.Ē

I'm not trying to persuade anyone to buy precious metals. I'm no expert, and I'm not fully convinced yet myself. All I'm trying to do is alert the open-minded to the powerful evidence that the media, the investment advice industry, and almost all politicians are are blindly stuck on stupid.
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 9:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good Night Mr Boehner, how's that Tea Party thingee working out for ya?
What a joke the entire Republican Party has become, sad. If you want to watch everything that is wrong with these idiots, watch Tim Huelkamp on CNBC today, or watch the interview he did on Morning Joe today.
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techno900



Joined: 28 Mar 2001
Posts: 1518

PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 10:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I guess the issue is where does an elected member of congress throw their support, to those that put him/her in office or to the party? It seems that a fair number of Republicans are sticking with those that elected them regardless of what may be best for the party. Isn't that what Obama is doing on a higher level, representing his 53% with little regard to the other 47%?

However, I think the tea party representatives should compromise, but only if the left does so too at a reasonable level. "Reasonable" may be impossible to define.
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boggsman1



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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 10:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Techno..the House of Representatives is where bills start. In order to pass a bill in this country, you must compromise, just like a business deal. You give me something, I give you something. The 70 or so extremeists wont compromise on ANYTHING! ANYTHING. Huelkamp said he wouldnt raise taxes on someone earning $5MM/year. nuff said. The numbers Obama put out on Monday were a good compromise, now that will be a pipe dream for the Repubs as we go over the cliff.
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techno900



Joined: 28 Mar 2001
Posts: 1518

PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

boggs,

I get it and I agree, and maybe the problem is the new blood in congress that believes that they are only accountable to those that elected them, and just aren't willing to compromise at risk of being voted out next time.

I think we are stuck until the tea party sees that there is a real effort to address the deficit, or at least seriously try to slow it down.
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boggsman1



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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 11:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like Boehner. I think if the Senate throws him a blanced bill, he will take it to the floor, it will pass and then he will get voted out...he will take the sword.
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 5477

PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 12:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Too bad more conservatives don't pay attention to David Brooks instead of Fox. Insightful commentary: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/21/opinion/brooks-strangers-in-the-night.html?smid=tw-nytdavidbrooks&seid=auto&_r=1&
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boggsman1



Joined: 24 Jun 2002
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 12:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great piece Mac, and it was written BEFORE the Tea Baggers took Boehner and Cantor behind the woodshed last night. NOW, Obama has an even better hand because of the extremists. He can sit back and wait until January, and get the original wish of taxes going higher for 250k+. Personally I hope the Senate crafts a bill based on Monday's discussion, and we get a $2Tr deal which would have about 191 Dems, and maybe 40-50 Repubs who care about the country and understand who won the presidency on Nov 6th.
I cant wait to see Boehner and Pelosi at the podeum together Shocked
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mac



Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 5477

PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 1:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boggsy--there are a lot of issues that need national attention, including immigration reform, closing the loopholes in gun laws--consistent with the Supreme Court decision, evaluating the effectiveness of health care reform, and addressing carbon emissions. Only a small portion of the country's population really endorses a do nothing government--but they have a stranglehold on cooperation. I think that both Obama and Boehner see that, and Obama is both very smart and has the upper negotiating hand. On the left, the drum beat is very much that Obama is too moderate--but I like that about him. He's pretty close to Eisenhower in orientation--and I think Ike looks better with every passing year. Of course Nixon looks like a flaming liberal next to these nuts.
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