myiW Current Conditions and Forecasts Community Forums Buy and Sell Services
 
Hi guest · myAccount · Log in
 SearchSearch   ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   RegisterRegister 
El Niņo: Gorge, Hawaii, Baja, California.

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    iWindsurf Community Forum Index -> Northwest USA & Canada
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 817

PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2012 12:08 pm    Post subject: El Niņo: Gorge, Hawaii, Baja, California. Reply with quote

El Niņo and La Niņa have a major impact on winter and spring winds and weather in the Gorge, Hawaii, Baja, California.

When a winter brings a full blown El Niņo develops the storm track over the USA west coast drops more south than normal. And the North Pacific High moves much further south leaving low pressure of lord over the N. Pacific. On the average this means:

Southern California: More storms and rain in the winter and has later and weaker NW clearing winds in the spring since the North Pacific High's surface NW winds are too far to the south.

Hawaii: More Kona conditions than normal. But with the North Pacific High further to the south the NE trade winds are less reliable than normal and have a more easterly direction.

Bay Area About the same as Southern California.

Baja, La Ventana and Los Barriles: Normally dry Baja Norte gets significant rain and it can get very difficult to get into or out of San Carlos.. The big winds on the east cape are caused in large part by the high pressure that moves into the 4 corners (where all the square states meet) after a storm has exited eastward after hitting California. In an El Niņo year this high pressure often does not set up in the 4 corners so Los Barriles and La Ventana are less likely to have El Norte winds to push their mid teens local sea breezes into the low 20's. In addition since there are not El Norte winds blowing down the entire length of the Sea of Cortez the swell is smaller.

The Gorge: The Pacific Northwest has less rain/snow than normal. In the spring and summer the wind starts a bit later than normal since it takes longer for the North Pacific High to climb up the coast from the south.

So what are the chances of an El Norte this winter especially in Baja?

Last winter 2011/12 Baja and the west coast was in a La Niņa pattern which can produce very good or very weak wind. We lucked out and had great wind but very few big El Norte blows. This winter is more complex. We would expect that this winter would normally be a neural year, No El Niņo, no La Niņa, since we just finished a La Niņa. However this summer there have been hints of a El Niņo developing. In recent weeks there has been a slowdown in the development of El Niņo conditions. Half of the models indicate that neutral to weak El Niņo conditions for this winter and half suggest that a weak El Niņo could develop. The official NOAA forecast favors the continuation of neutral to weak El Niņo conditions into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, with a chance of a stronger El Niņo developing by the holidays.

I will update in the Baja Guide as things become more firm.

Mike Godsey
weatherflow.com
wind alert.com
iwindsurf.com
ikitesurf.com
sailflow.com
fishweather.com



ElNino.jpg
 Description:
 Filesize:  509.89 KB
 Viewed:  1625 Time(s)

ElNino.jpg


Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    iWindsurf Community Forum Index -> Northwest USA & Canada All times are GMT - 5 Hours
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You can attach files in this forum
You can download files in this forum

myiW | Weather | Community | Membership | Support | Log in
like us on facebook
© Copyright 1999-2007 WeatherFlow, Inc Contact Us Ad Marketplace

Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group