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isobars
Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 20935
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 Posted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 7:15 pm Post subject: |
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"Economic Signals Point to a 2013 Recession" by David Malpass
Excerpt:
As our debt levels climb, our credit worthiness declines. Bond rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. government's AAA credit rating in August 2011. Egan-Jones did it two weeks ago, and Moody's said it expects to lower its rating unless Washington adopts new policies that "produce a stabilization and then downward trend in the ratio of federal debt to G.D.P."
Yet current policy is pointing toward an uptrend in debt, not a downtrend. The national debt is expected to rise to $16.4 trillion by year's end, from $10 trillion in 2008, and our public debt-to-GDP ratio to 73% from 41%. If the current path continues, the Congressional Budget Office projects debt-to-GDP at 90% in 2022 under a no-recession baseline, higher if there are recessions.
President Obama has already said that if re-elected he plans to continue working outside the congressional budget process, meaning more years with no budget or bipartisan input into the allocation of taxpayer resources. That leaves the odds high of more credit downgrades, damage to growth and lower equity and house prices as recession sets in. Meanwhile, the capital-gains tax rate is scheduled to rise to 23.8% from 15%, hammering the after-tax value of assets.
http://tinyurl.com/9bmmu7x
The idiotlogues' refusal to consider this finding simply because it was written by a Republican Treasury official will help crush our nation. |
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DanWeiss
Joined: 24 Jun 2008
Posts: 2296
Location: Connecticut, USA
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| Posted: Mon Oct 01, 2012 8:27 pm Post subject: |
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Mike, move to the north pole. Life is black and white there.
_________________
Support Your Sport. Join US Windsurfing!
www.USWindsurfing.org |
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keycocker
Joined: 10 Jul 2005
Posts: 3598
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| Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:24 am Post subject: |
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Iso almost posted some real facts for once but he added an insult and assigned an opinion to libs so he gets an F on his homework.
Again. |
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techno900
Joined: 28 Mar 2001
Posts: 4161
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| Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 8:56 am Post subject: |
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Ignore the facts and dump on Iso, that will lead us all to using our boards as fishing craft rather than recreation when everything goes down the crapper.
Can't you guys get a little "sticks and stones" backbone and ignore the insults and just ingest some of the material for what it's worth? But we all know that's not really the issue. When he does post something that potentially has some merit, rather than discuss the issue, you just deflect to his insults and avoid the debate.
Entertainment value - high
Practical value - low |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17747
Location: Berkeley, California
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| Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 9:54 am Post subject: |
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| Techno--to an almost complete degree, Mike Fick avoids conversation. This is a general characteristic of on-line forums, but taken to an extreme by Iso--he, and largely mrgybe--absolutely ignore comments that rebut their "facts" and quickly return to talking points put out by right wing operatives. So in this case, Mike predicts a recession while the newspapers and the leading Bay Area Economic firm Beacon, note that the housing market is continuing to show signs of recovery. Of course it was the bubble in the housing market that caused the recession. No Republican wants to think about recovery on their way to an election where Romney has shown, more than anything, a taste for his own shoe leather. |
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isobars
Joined: 12 Dec 1999
Posts: 20935
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| Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 10:18 am Post subject: |
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| techno900 wrote: | Ignore the facts and dump on[any poster]
Entertainment value - high
Practical value - low |
[/quote]
It's all they know how to do, Techno, which is why actual debate with them is pointless and why their president is so useless. Let's see ... Netanyahu and a potential WWIII (if we honor our promises), or Beyonce? Protect my threatened Libyan ambassador from Al Qaeda, or go to VEGASSSSSSS?
Take this, for example. Do ya think they'll offer any substantive response, even though it's from the left wing Bloomberg via the even more left wing WP, commenting n the neutral Tax Policy Center's recent study?
Excerpt from http://tinyurl.com/9oaazzc :
"Nearly 90 percent of Americans would face higher taxes next year if Congress lets the nation hurtle over the “fiscal cliff,” [Bernanke's term for what looms] the year-end precipice of tax hikes and spending cuts that threatens to throw the nation back into recession."
It's going to cost the average windsurfer a board and a few sails each year, and will cost Coboardhed a new Maserati ... each year. |
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MalibuGuru
Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 9300
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| Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 11:11 am Post subject: |
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| I think both sides could benefit from reading "How To Win Friends And Influence People". |
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mac
Joined: 07 Mar 1999
Posts: 17747
Location: Berkeley, California
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| Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 11:11 am Post subject: |
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For those interested in a world that includes facts, the lead paragraphs on economic recovery in housing:
| Quote: | The deluge is over.
Foreclosures and default notices in California and the Bay Area have subsided back to their 2007 levels. Foreclosures are still running about double historical averages, but are a far cry from the sky-high levels during the worst of the housing crisis in 2008.
"The worst is absolutely past us," said Christopher Thornberg, principal with Beacon Economics, an economics consulting firm. "There is no doubt about it - foreclosures are down, delinquencies are down. It's clear we are in the healing process. The only question is the pace of recovery."
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Foreclosures-default-notices-plunge-3910965.php#ixzz289tDbL4l |
Iso also posted nonsense about tax increases. The Bush tax cuts saved me about $2,000/year, or enough to go out to a nice place for dinnner once a month. I donate a lot more than that to scholarship funds, and I thought, from day one, that sending the budget into a structural deficit for such a small amount of money was very bad policy. I haven't changed my mind on that. However, for the truly wealthy, the tax cuts proposed by Ryan and Romney would average $250,000. That's a yacht a year. So they are putting a lot of money into fear mongering--and Iso is listening, without much thinking. |
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MalibuGuru
Joined: 11 Nov 1993
Posts: 9300
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| Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 11:15 am Post subject: |
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| It would be nice if the yacht builders could go back into business and hire more people. |
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nw30
Joined: 21 Dec 2008
Posts: 6485
Location: The eye of the universe, Cen. Cal. coast
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| Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 11:31 am Post subject: |
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| mac wrote: | For those interested in a world that includes facts, the lead paragraphs on economic recovery in housing:
| Quote: | The deluge is over.
Foreclosures and default notices in California and the Bay Area have subsided back to their 2007 levels. Foreclosures are still running about double historical averages, but are a far cry from the sky-high levels during the worst of the housing crisis in 2008.
"The worst is absolutely past us," said Christopher Thornberg, principal with Beacon Economics, an economics consulting firm. "There is no doubt about it - foreclosures are down, delinquencies are down. It's clear we are in the healing process. The only question is the pace of recovery."
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/Foreclosures-default-notices-plunge-3910965.php#ixzz289tDbL4l |
Iso also posted nonsense about tax increases. The Bush tax cuts saved me about $2,000/year, or enough to go out to a nice place for dinnner once a month. I donate a lot more than that to scholarship funds, and I thought, from day one, that sending the budget into a structural deficit for such a small amount of money was very bad policy. I haven't changed my mind on that. However, for the truly wealthy, the tax cuts proposed by Ryan and Romney would average $250,000. That's a yacht a year. So they are putting a lot of money into fear mongering--and Iso is listening, without much thinking. |
Lets try a different source for perhaps a clearer picture~
Under Obama, Poor, Middle Class Incomes Fall Sharply
Mon, Oct 01 2012
By JOHN MERLINE
Posted 08:05 AM ET
Despite repeated promises that he would build prosperity from the bottom up, President Obama has presided over three years of income losses for the middle class, according to the latest household income data from the Census Bureau.
Since 2009, the middle 20% of American households saw their average incomes drop 4%. In 2011 alone, they fell 1.7%. The poorest 20% have fared even worse under Obama, Census data show. Their incomes have dropped more than 7% since 2009, and are now lower than they've been at any time since 1985, after adjusting for inflation.
Meanwhile, the wealthiest have managed to eke out gains in two of the past three years. In 2011, the top 20% saw their average income climb almost 2%, the Census data show.
These results are in direct contrast of what President Obama said his policies would produce when he ran for president in 2008.
At a high profile speech in March of that year at Cooper Union in New York City, for example, Obama said "I've put forward a series of proposals that will foster economic growth from the bottom up."
Later that year, he said the country faced "a choice between more of the same policies that have widened inequality, added to our debt," or policies that "will restore balance to our economy; that will invest in the ingenuity and innovation of our people; that will fuel a bottom-up prosperity."
And in his first budget, released in February 2009, Obama said his policies would bring about "bottom-up growth that empowers hardworking families to climb the ladder of success."
But so far, none of that has happened during Obama's recovery, which started in June 2009 and has produced historically low rates of economic growth.
Instead, only the wealthiest households have managed to eke out income gains, while every other income group has fallen further behind in each of the past three years.
These results are highly unusual in an economic recovery, which typically produces income gains across the board. During the eight-year Reagan boom, for example, incomes at the bottom climbed 14%, while those in the middle climbed 13%, and those at the top 22%.
What's more, despite Obama's promise that he would reduce income inequality, it's increased each year he's been in office, reaching an all-time high after remaining flat during the Bush years.
University of California, Berkeley, economist Emmanuel Saez found that the top 1% captured 93% of the income gains between 2009 and 2010, which is a far higher share than occurred during the 2002-07 Bush expansion.
Read More At IBD: http://news.investors.com/100212-627662-under-obama-poor-middle-class-incomes-fall-sharply.aspx#ixzz289xxMBQP |
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