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PennyB



Joined: 26 Aug 2006
Posts: 31

PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 11:24 am    Post subject: New Update Time Reply with quote

Somehow I have missed the discussion of a later morning update time. If you want to know if it is worth the drive from the Seattle metro area, and if you plan to sail the same day you leave, an earlier update time would be very nice. Often the updates at 7 am were late and that would delay my departure. Why is a later update better? Closer to the time you start sailing? My only suggestion would be perhaps to proof read the updates so the make sense all of the time.
Penny
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isobras



Joined: 17 Jul 2012
Posts: 439

PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 11:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Have you relayed that concern to iW? They very seldom wallow in this swamp.
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 797

PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi PennyB,

As the days get shorter in late August and especially in Sept. there is not enough light at 6-7AM for proper satellite imagery. Even the low light product is so pixelated that the Gorge forecasters can not make out the degree of marine layer penetration from the coast. In addition the cam imagery is degraded. In past years the forecasters have struggled with these issue and the forecast quality has suffered in the fall.

Since I have noticed that each year fewer and fewer people are doing dawn patrols I suggested that we do a survey on the forecast page for the entire west coast regarding a fall shift from 7AM to 7:30 AM for the morning forecast.

Amazingly 100% of the windsurfers and kiters in San Diego, Los Angeles, S.F. Bay Area and The Gorge were in favor of the time switch! There are lots of funny comments I could make about the unlikelihood of such unanimity from such a diverse group. But I will leave that to your imagination. See some sample results from the Gorge below.

I understand your situation driving from Seattle. But better to leave 30 minutes later for a better forecast than to arrive 30 minutes earlier and find the forecast was way off.

Mike Godsey
weatherflow.com
windalert.com
iwindsurf.com
ikitesurf.com
sailflow.com
fishweather.com
USAfishing.com
windnotes.phanfare.com/



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PennyB



Joined: 26 Aug 2006
Posts: 31

PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 7:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for the explanation. I hope the earlier reports are available for the longer days of summer and I hope the forcasts can continue into mid October.
Penny
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isobras



Joined: 17 Jul 2012
Posts: 439

PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 7:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

windfind wrote:
each year fewer and fewer people are doing dawn patrols

Only because it no longer exists, relatively speaking. Its incidence has decreased by 80-90% for roughly the past decade. For me, dawn patrol MADE the corridor work. If it were still anywhere near as common as it was throughout the '90s, I'd live in the Corridor rather than TriCities.
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scottwerden



Joined: 11 Jul 1999
Posts: 213

PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:51 pm    Post subject: Re: New Update Time Reply with quote

PennyB wrote:
My only suggestion would be perhaps to proof read the updates so the make sense all of the time.
Penny


For the most part it is OK but sometimes the forecast is really inconsistent between the bar chart and the text. Which is correct?

One question to iW - is this permanent, or will we return to 7am postings next June? I would strongly advocate for that.
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isobras



Joined: 17 Jul 2012
Posts: 439

PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:58 pm    Post subject: Re: New Update Time Reply with quote

scottwerden wrote:
sometimes the forecast is really inconsistent between the bar chart and the text. Which is correct?

And sometimes the WAP and iW website bar chart data are night and day different.
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scottwerden



Joined: 11 Jul 1999
Posts: 213

PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 11:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It used to be that the forecasts would say "moderately strong" when it would be blowing in the 4.2 range (mid 20's). Now you see "moderately strong" but it also will say the wind will be upper teens to low 20's. It seems like the meaning of the adjectives is shifting these days, I assume due to the change in demographics from sailing to kiting. That is fine, but I suggest you drop the subjective and just tell us what it is going to blow, in knots. This is especially true for the 3 day forecast. Just a suggestion.
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windfind



Joined: 18 Mar 1997
Posts: 797

PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

scottwerden
Quote:
Now you see "moderately strong" but it also will say the wind will be upper teens to low 20's. It seems like the meaning of the adjectives is shifting these days, I assume due to the change in demographics from sailing to kiting.


I rarely forecast for the Gorge but I can try to answer those questions with my own personal opinion ie. not as a iwindsurf.com contractor.

I find the "moderate strong" phrase for upper teens/ faint low 20's confusing. In some places like the Bay Area those winds are great winds since they are extremely steady but in the Gorge they are often up and down and barely sailable. We do have more forecasters who are both kiting and windsurfing so maybe Scott is correct. I will mention this issue to those forecasters.

Quote:
sometimes the forecast is really inconsistent between the bar chart and the text. Which is correct?


This is embarrassing. There is no excuse for this inconsistency other than that humans will be humans. Entering all those numbers manually in the tables is incredibly laborious, boring and easy to screw up. Each day our forecasters are rushed forecasting for regions all over the USA and it is easy sometimes mess up the tables. Bottomline... always trust the forecast written text and bullets more than the tables since the forecaster can see exactly what they wrote.

Quote:
One question to iW - is this (time change) permanent, or will we return to 7am postings next June? I would strongly advocate for that.


We will return to 7AM updates next spring.

Mike Godsey
weatherflow.com,windalert.com
iwindsurf.com, ikitesurf.com
sailflow.com, fishweather.com
USAfishing.com, windnotes.phanfare.com/
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scottwerden



Joined: 11 Jul 1999
Posts: 213

PostPosted: Thu Aug 30, 2012 12:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Mike.
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