Sunday thermals on Cape Cod?

jayturcot · Joined: 08 Mar 2004 Posts: 84

Forecast put out by iW looks a bit lack luster.

Feels like a great thermal set-up plus models show a SW building throughout the day so 11-15 at Kalmus just doesn't add up for me.

Do those who are older and wiser agree?

(clearly just fishing for optimism, but hopefully enlightened optimism from those with years of calling it)

lasrer · Joined: 15 May 2000 Posts: 113

The temperature of the water on my trimaran depth sounder says 78.5 degrees last night in Nantucket sound

When I stood in the water windsurfing the other afternoon it felt like bathwater.

Doesn't make for a great Seabreeze gradient.

no prediction being made. too unpredictable.

ed

shreddbob · Joined: 31 Mar 1987 Posts: 361 Location: Hawaii

Ed makes a good point. I think we're so used to the opposite effect when the cool water prevents warm SW wind attachment in spring (decoupling). But now with the very warm water it can get as hot as it wants and that should help the wind. The summer of 1988 was an exceptionally hot/muggy summer. I do remember that Kalmus had 25 mph+ winds for weeks on end from mid July until end of August. The water was very warm then too I remember. There was only muggy stillness in Boston when Kalmus was going off. Too bad we didn't have all the weather tools/websites back then to see what made it so windy. I know that was a persistent Bermuda High summer. I just don't know what the isobars looked like. I also remember the hour before 'til the hour after low tide was usually a lull in the wind (water really warming up at low tide, shutting off the thermal). The other strange thing was that Kalmus might have a late afternoon lull, but you could bank on the 7pm reprise of wind. I'd drive down from Boston after work for those.

Today, I'm guessing Kalmus has a 50/50 shot at 20 mph after 5:00. The isobars are looking decent to me, though it is concerning to see the bowing of the isobars just south of us (a pesky warm front forming?) The sun should stay strong so if you're on the Cape I'd keep open to the late sailing session possibility at Kalmus. West Dennis too, but never as strong as Kalmus when it's hot and muggy. But I'm not driving for it.

flaherty · Joined: 01 May 1997 Posts: 437

Nice analysis, shred bob. I made the mistake last Tuesday of going to WD , instead of Kalmus, and missed out. Also it seems, if there is any west in the wind, goto Kalmus instead of WD. The more southerly though, I think WD may be better. The waves at the Rock pile , seem to be bigger, when it's SSW or even due South. Although, exactly when the swell,will be good, at the Rocks, is still a big mystery to me. Hoping for wind tomorrow, and maybe Wed.

paulf. · Joined: 21 Mar 1996 Posts: 435

I'm glad to hear you say this. As much as we go out to the rockpile, I've never figured out if higher tide going low or low tide starting in works better out there. WSW is certainly easier to get out but the only wave seems to be right in front of the rocks. After working out on more southerly stuff, at least you can get a few backside hits as the windswell breaks along the whole sandbar over towards bass river. Hope you catch it the next few days. Man, I need a fix bad.

ron.c · Joined: 30 Oct 2004 Posts: 1460

I know I'm "all hat and no cattle" when it comes to sailing these days, but maybe something will happen Wednesday morning first thing. NOAA is already hinting at NW 15-20 with gusts to 25. My plan - Skaket at 6:30

I can't complain though with 6 solid surf sessions in the past 2 weeks. This morning was a slight test of courage (I did get a little wigged out) SUP'g shark alley completely on my own before the wind scruffed things up.

RC

shreddbob · Joined: 31 Mar 1987 Posts: 361 Location: Hawaii

shreddbob · Joined: 31 Mar 1987 Posts: 361 Location: Hawaii

jayturcot · Joined: 08 Mar 2004 Posts: 84

So it seems Kalmus never fired up in the end.

I stayed around Boston and looks like the thermal was stronger up here; which lines up well with the theory that the water in nantucket sound is just too warm now.
I guess there's always cheap lobster that I keep hearing about but have yet to capitalize on.

boardsurfr · Joined: 23 Aug 2001 Posts: 1266

Fogland worked nicely yesterday. The iWindsurf meter only shows averages near 15, but it probably had 17-19 mph averages on the river. Seems we had a thermal boost of a few knots, while Kalmus did not because the winds were to southerly. Everyone was planing on big gear - Nina on 5.7/100l probably had the smallest gear. It was nice to plane for hours, it's been a while.